LONDON, April 1 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond
yields edged lower on Wednesday as investors remained cautious
over the conflict in the Middle East, even after U.S. President
Donald Trump suggested the war could be nearing an end.
Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the euro zone,
was down 0.5 basis points (bps) to 3.0%. It hit 2.932% in early
trading, its lowest since March 18.
Germany's rate-sensitive two-year yield fell one bp to 2.60%
, and traders also reduced the amount of European
Central Bank rate hikes they expect this year.
They are pricing in a European Central Bank depo rate at
2.68% -- which implies two hikes and an around 70% chance of a
third tightening move -- from 2.73% late Tuesday.
The deposit facility rate is currently at
2%.
The United States will end its war on Iran fairly soon and
could return for "spot hits" if needed, President Trump told
Reuters on Wednesday.
The comments, alongside a planned address by Trump to the
nation scheduled for 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on
Thursday) were enough to drive some optimism across stock and
bond markets. European shares rose 2% and were set for their
biggest daily gain in nearly a year.
Italian debt, which has underperformed in recent weeks on
the view the country is more exposed to higher energy prices,
outperformed on Wednesday. Italy's 10-year yield was down 3 bps
at 3.88%.
Still, analysts cautioned Wednesday's rally was fragile.
"Markets will want to see whether this leads to a path
toward de-escalation. The question that remains is how quickly
energy flow can be fully restored, given the destruction already
incurred," analysts at ING said in a note.
The fall in yields comes after dramatic rises in March, as
traders bet a surge in energy prices could drive a broader move
in inflation and in turn interest rate hikes by the ECB, and
most of its global peers.
Germany's two-year yield rose 60 bps in March, its most in a
month since 2022, and its 10-year increased by 36 bps.
Italy's two-year yield surged 76 bps in the month, and its
10-year jumped 63 bps.
Reinforcing those worries about inflation, PMI data from
Wednesday showed euro zone manufacturers faced soaring input
costs and supply chain disruptions in March.
ECB policymaker Primoz Dolenc said the euro zone economy may
already be on the "adverse" path outlined by the ECB, and
inflation could become entrenched quicker than in 2022 as
memories of rapid price rises shape consumer behaviour.
Dolenc is the latest in a string of policymakers to give
similar warnings, but ING noted markets had tended not to react
to their comments, after they had already priced in significant
hikes this year.
"At least pricing (for ECB rate hikes) has not become more
pronounced despite some of the latest ECB commentary coming in
on the hawkish side," they said.