(Updates after morning trading)
By Alun John
LONDON, April 1 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields
dropped on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the
end of the war on Iran could be near, a development that would
ease traders' fears about high energy prices driving inflation
and interest rate hikes.
Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the euro
zone,dropped to a two-week low of 2.93% in early trading and was
last at 2.96%, still down 5 basis points.
Germany's rate-sensitive two-year yield also fell 5 bps to
2.57%, and traders also reduced the amount of European Central
Bank rate hikes they expect this year - they are pricing in two
25-bp rate hikes, and see a third as a toss-up, compared with
earlier in the week when they thought three hikes were near
certain.
"We'll be leaving very soon," Trump told reporters at the
White House on Tuesday, saying the exit could take place "within
two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three."
The remarks underscored the shifting and at times
contradictory timelines and statements from Washington about how
and when the war, now in its fifth week, might end, and attacks
took place on multiple fronts early on Wednesday.
But the comments, alongside a planned address by Trump to
the nation scheduled for 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on
Thursday) were enough to drive some optimism across stock and
bond markets. European shares rose 2% and were set for their
biggest daily gain in nearly a year.
Italian debt, which has underperformed in recent weeks on
the view the country is more exposed to higher energy prices,
outperformed on Wednesday.
Italy's 10-year yield was down nearly 9 bps at 3.82%.
But analysts cautioned Tuesday's rally was fragile.
"Markets will want to see whether this leads to a path
toward de-escalation. The question that remains is how quickly
energy flow can be fully restored, given the destruction already
incurred," analysts at ING said in a note.
The falls in yields come after dramatic rises in March, as
traders bet a surge in energy prices could drive a broader move
in inflation and in turn interest rate hikes by the ECB, and
most of its global peers.
Germany's two-year yield rose 60 bps in March, its most in a
month since 2022, and its 10-year increased by 36 bps.
Italy's two-year yield surged 76 bps in the month, and its
10-year jumped 63 bps.
Reinforcing those worries about inflation, PMI data from
Wednesday showed euro zone manufacturers faced soaring input
costs and supply chain disruptions in March.
ECB policymaker Primoz Dolenc said the euro zone economy may
already be on the "adverse" path outlined by the ECB, and
inflation could become entrenched quicker than in 2022 as
memories of rapid price rises shape consumer behaviour.
Dolenc is the latest in a string of policymakers to give
similar warnings, but ING noted markets had tended not to react
to their comments, after they had already priced in significant
hikes this year.
"At least pricing (for ECB rate hikes) has not become more
pronounced despite some of the latest ECB commentary coming in
on the hawkish side," they said.