LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields rose
on Monday, as concerns grew that the ceasefire between the
United States and Iran might not hold, though borrowing costs
were still meaningfully below their late March highs hit before
the ceasefire was announced.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone,
rose 3 basis points to 2.99%. Rate-sensitive two-year yields
rose nearly 5 bps to 2.47%.
Efforts to build a more lasting peace appeared to be on
shaky ground, as Iran said it would not participate in a second
round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to kick off before
the ceasefire expires on Tuesday.
In the short term, the U.S. said it had seized an Iranian
cargo ship that tried to run its blockade and Iran vowed to
retaliate.
That sent benchmark Brent crude futures up 6.6% on the day
to $95 a barrel, underscoring worries for bond
investors that sustained high energy costs could force central
banks to hike rates to prevent a broader surge in inflation.
Money markets see a small chance of a European Central Bank
rate hike later this month, but see a 25 bp hike as likely by
June and are close to fully pricing two such moves by year-end.
Before the war, markets thought the ECB would remain on hold
this year, but with a possibility of a rate cut. However, at
times in March they were pricing three 25-bp rate hikes, sending
Germany's two-year yield as high as 2.77%.
Italian bonds underperformed the German benchmark on Monday,
with its 10-year yield up 6 bps to 3.74% and its 2-year yield
nearly 5 bps higher to 2.66%.