(Updates all prices, adds inflation news, adds analyst quote)
By Lucy Raitano
LONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields
steadied on Friday as investors assessed mixed inflation figures
from the bloc's major economies while awaiting more details of a
potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the
U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the bloc, was steady at 2.9587%. It has fallen 7 basis points
this month, as investors grew more optimistic about a potential
Iran peace deal, in turn bringing oil prices down and tempering
bets on European Central Bank rate hikes.
The two-year German bond yield - more sensitive
to ECB interest rate expectations - was unchanged at 2.559%.
Yields move inversely to prices.
Italian bond yields fell by more, with the 10-year yield
down 2.3 bps and the 2-year yield down 2
bps.
Inflation in the euro zone's four largest economies hovered
above the ECB's 2% target for a third straight month in May,
preliminary data showed on Friday, as a rise in fuel costs
triggered by the Iran war began to feed through to other prices.
Country-specific figures were mixed. While German figures
were cooler than expected, the Spanish reading was
hotter-than-expected, as was Italy's. In France, inflation came
in below the forecast but crept higher month-on-month.
The United States and Iran reached an agreement on Thursday
to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping
through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters, though U.S.
President Donald Trump has yet to approve it and Iranian state
media said it had not been finalised.
Oil fell 1.8% to $92 a barrel.
"In terms of market reactions if a deal is agreed upon, we
should see another leg higher in risky assets and lower in
rates. However, positioning suggests that the rates market
should see a greater reaction than equities," wrote Mohit Kumar,
chief European economist at Jefferies.
INFLATION JITTERS KEEP OPTIMISM IN CHECK
Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research for FX and rates
at Societe Generale, said euro zone bonds have been
underperforming U.S. recently.
"Europe as a whole is definitely underperforming the U.S.
after outperforming through May, I wonder how much of the lower
oil price and short-covering in Bunds is priced in. Support for
the 10-year Bund at 2.90% is a hurdle too far for now at least,"
he said.
With the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed and the
global flow of energy disrupted, fears of rising inflation in
the import-dependent euro zone had led traders to ramp up bets
on central bank rate hikes in recent weeks.
The worries subsided as optimism grew around a peace deal.
But key data reads are keeping inflation fears at the
forefront.
Friday's euro zone CPI figures come a day after figures
showed U.S. inflation increased at its fastest pace in three
years in April, cementing economists' views that the Federal
Reserve would hold interest rates unchanged well into next
year.
Also out on Friday was data showing France's economy shrank
slightly in the first quarter, missing the preliminary reading
of 0.0% for the euro zone's second-largest economy.
European Central Bank research showed on Friday that euro
zone consumers, already scarred by the Ukraine war, have changed
their attitudes more quickly as a result of the upheaval of the
Iran conflict, meaning the economic hit could be deeper and
faster.
"Today's inflation data are further cementing the case for a
rate hike," said Rabobank analysts in a note, as they also
flagged a pick-up in consumers' medium-term inflation
expectations.
"However, we still believe that the current backdrop is less
conducive to broader and protracted inflationary pressures than
2021-2022."
Money markets are betting on a 91% chance of a rate hike at
the ECB's next meeting on June 11.
"For the ECB, we can see one hike (in June), simply because
they have to justify their inflation credibility. However, we do
not see a series of rate hikes and maintain our long position at
the front end of the curve," said Jefferies' Kumar.