Optimism in the Indian equities has been on a rise amid hopes of Narendra-Modi-led NDA returning to power in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Exit polls have also indicated the same with the final results due on Thursday and analysts have also already factored in the win.
NSE
Brokerage house Jefferies said that a decisive majority for the current government (NDA) would be viewed as the better outcome. It added that defence, roads, and renewable energy saw a pick-up in announcements and execution post-2014 elections.
"Industrial companies’ execution and order flow have improved, but 2019 has not seen the pre-election rally of 2014. We expect a strong post-election rally if the current government returns, as the election has been an overhang," the brokerage said in a report.
Having gained 8 percent so far this year, Sensex is forecast to add another 2.6 percent by end-2019, touching an all-time high of 40,000, a poll showed.
According to the brokerage, 2014 elections benefitted domestic defence companies materially, as the government focused on reducing imports to 30 percent from 70 percent levels and 72 percent of immediate requirements were slated for domestic manufacturing. L&T, Bharat Electronics, and Bharat Earth Movers are key players, it added.
The road sector has also seen a spate of policy announcements in the two years following the 2014 elections. The brokerage house expects this momentum to continue and prefers L&T, Nagarjuna Construction, and Sadhbhav Engineering in this space.
Port and shipping sector has done reasonably well in the past five years in terms of improving ease of operations and believes a faster pace of implementation will be the next step, the brokerage said. It is positive on Adani Ports and L&T in this sector.
Here are the top election picks by Jefferies:
L&T: The company's share price reflects those few instances when risk/reward is favorable, with downside protection from execution ramp up and upside from favourable election results and capex recovery.
NTPC: NTPC should see the twin benefits of operational improvement and capacity addition in the next five years. Potential earnings upside of 5-6 percent from power demand-driven PLF (plant load factor) recovery is an additional benefit.
Voltas: The company remains a good play on the investment and consumption theme in India as the air-conditioner segment is back on the growth path after eight years of weak demand.
ABB India: Remarkably, automation business' market share for the three major MNCs, ABB India, Honeywell Automation and Siemens India, has been largely intact in the past 10 years. Post demerger, they believe the automation business will re-rate.
ConCor: As long as ConCor sees double-digit volume growth until the Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) is commissioned, the stock should see double-digit returns over the next 12 months.
KEI Industries: KEI management has made focused efforts in brand positioning and building, especially in the past five-seven years. Digital marketing is helping KEI gradually become a household name and this should drive margin improvement for the company.
Gateway Distriparks: In the past three years, investors have lost confidence in the Gateway’s management as business profitability, especially after railways saw a sharp decline. The brokerage believes over the next 12-24 months, post the stake purchase, management focus will help the company regain lost share and improve margins and drive upside.
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