financetom
Market
financetom
/
Market
/
EXPLAINER-Charting the Fed's economic data flow
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
EXPLAINER-Charting the Fed's economic data flow
Mar 29, 2024 6:35 AM

March 29 (Reuters) -

The U.S. Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate

steady in the 5.25% to 5.5% range at its March policy meeting,

and officials continued to anticipate approving three

quarter-point interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.

Before policymakers begin to ease borrowing costs they

say they want to see more data confirming that inflation is

returning to their 2% target.

Here's a recap of recent key data watched by the central

bank:

INFLATION (PCE released March 29; next release CPI April

10):

The personal consumption expenditures

(PCE) price index

, which the Fed uses to set its 2% inflation target,

increased at a 2.5% annual rate in February, up from the 2.4%

rate seen in January. Core inflation stripped of volatile food

and energy prices rose 2.8%, a slight decline from a January

number that was revised up to 2.9%. Neither number is likely to

boost confidence among Fed policymakers that inflation will

steadily return to their target.

The CPI had risen 3.2% on a year-on-year basis in February,

a tick up from 3.1% in the prior month, and higher than analysts

expected. The core rate excluding food and energy costs,

meanwhile, only edged down to 3.8% from 3.9%, another reminder

that the Fed's inflation battle may last longer than

anticipated. Rising gasoline and shelter costs contributed the

bulk of the CPI increase. Whether the Fed's hoped-for consistent

easing in housing costs is imminent remains uncertain.

EMPLOYMENT (Released March 8; next release April 5):

U.S. firms added a larger-than-expected 275,000 jobs in

February, though employment gains in the previous two months

were revised lower by 167,000. The unemployment rate rose to a

two-year high of 3.9% as a rise in the size of the workforce was

outweighed by a larger increase in the number of people

reporting they were out of work.

Fed officials have become more comfortable with the idea

that continued strong job growth could still allow inflation to

fall, especially if the supply of labor continues to grow and

wage growth eases.

On the wage front, growth eased on a month-to-month

basis to just 0.1%, the smallest increase in two years and

essentially neutralizing the unexpectedly strong jump in hourly

pay the month before.

The annual increase, meanwhile, slowed to 4.3% from 4.4%.

While marking further progress, that level is still well above

the 3.0%-3.5% range that most policymakers view as consistent

with the Fed's 2% inflation target.

JOB OPENINGS (Released March 6; next release April 2)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell keeps a close eye on the U.S. Labor

Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for

information on the imbalance between labor supply and demand,

and particularly on the number of job openings potentially

available to each person who is without a job but looking for

one. The ratio had been falling steadily towards its

pre-pandemic level, but has stalled for the last four months at

just above 1.4-to-1, higher than the 1.2-to-1 level seen before

the health crisis. Other aspects of the survey, like the quits

rate, have edged back to pre-pandemic levels.

RETAIL SALES (Released Feb. 15; next release March. 14):

Retail sales fell more than expected in January, dropping

0.8%. They were pulled down by declines in receipts at auto

dealerships and gasoline service stations, and consumer spending

was also likely weighed down by winter storms. The decline

followed a fairly strong performance over the holiday season and

could indicate economic growth will slow sharply this quarter.

If it does, it would finally be a sign the aggressive rate

hikes Fed policymakers delivered from March 2022 to July 2023

are trimming overall demand for goods and services in what has

up to now been a markedly resilient economy.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Sector Update: Health Care
Sector Update: Health Care
Jun 4, 2024
08:53 AM EDT, 06/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Health care stocks were steady pre-bell Tuesday, with the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) and iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) recently inactive. Annexon ( ANNX ) rallied past 45% after saying its phase 3 trial evaluating investigational monoclonal antibody ANX005 in patients with the neurological disease Guillain-Barre syndrome met its primary endpoint...
US STOCKS-Wall Street set to open lower as fears of sluggish growth increase
US STOCKS-Wall Street set to open lower as fears of sluggish growth increase
Jun 4, 2024
(For a Reuters live blog on U.S., UK and European stock markets, click or type LIVE/ in a news window.) * April's factory orders, JOLTS numbers due at 10 a.m. ET * Intel ( INTC ) rises after launch of data center chips to take on AMD * Futures down: Dow 0.30%, S&P 0.35%, Nasdaq 0.30% (Updated at 8:31 am...
Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Tuesday as Weak Economic Data Adds to Interest Rate Cut Pessimism
Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Tuesday as Weak Economic Data Adds to Interest Rate Cut Pessimism
Jun 4, 2024
08:43 AM EDT, 06/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ) was down 0.5% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 0.4% lower in Tuesday's premarket activity after recent weak economic data added to the pessimism about interest rate cuts. US stock futures were also lower, with S&P 500...
Sector Update: Tech
Sector Update: Tech
Jun 4, 2024
08:47 AM EDT, 06/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Technology stocks were flat to lower pre-bell Tuesday as the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) was unchanged and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) was recently down 0.4%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( TSM ) considered relocating parts of its chip foundry business off the island amid rising tensions with China but finally...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved