April 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve held its
benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50%
range at its March 19-20 policy meeting, and officials continued
to anticipate approving three quarter-percentage-point rate cuts
by the end of 2024.
Before policymakers begin to ease borrowing costs, they say
they want to see more data confirming that inflation is
returning to the U.S. central bank's 2% target.
Here's a recap of recent key data watched by the central
bank:
JOB OPENINGS (Released April 2, next release May 1)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell keeps a close eye on the U.S. Labor
Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for
information on the imbalance between labor supply and demand,
and particularly on the number of job openings available to each
person who is without a job but looking for one. The ratio had
been falling steadily towards its pre-pandemic level, but since
October has remained in the 1.35-1.43 range, higher than the
1.2-to-1 level seen before the health crisis.
The number fell in the most recent release, for
February, as the number of people seeking work rose, pushing up
the unemployment rate.
Other aspects of the survey, like the quits rate, have edged
back to pre-pandemic levels.
INFLATION (PCE released March 29; next release CPI on April
10):
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index,
which the Fed uses to set its 2% inflation target, increased at
a 2.5% annual rate in February, up from the 2.4% rate seen in
January. Core inflation stripped of volatile food and energy
prices rose 2.8%, a slight decline from the upwardly revised
2.9% in January. Neither number is likely to boost confidence
among Fed policymakers that inflation will steadily return to
their target.
The CPI had risen 3.2% on a year-on-year basis in February,
up from 3.1% in the prior month, and higher than analysts
expected. The core rate excluding food and energy costs,
meanwhile, only edged down to 3.8% from 3.9%, another reminder
that the Fed's inflation battle may last longer than
anticipated. Rising gasoline and shelter costs contributed the
bulk of the CPI increase. Whether the Fed's hoped-for consistent
easing in housing costs is imminent remains uncertain.
EMPLOYMENT (Released March 8; next release April 5):
U.S. firms added a larger-than-expected 275,000 jobs in
February, though employment gains in the previous two months
were revised lower by 167,000. The unemployment rate rose to a
two-year high of 3.9% as a rise in the size of the workforce was
outweighed by a larger increase in the number of people
reporting they were out of work.
Fed officials have become more comfortable with the idea
that continued strong job growth could still allow inflation to
fall, especially if the supply of labor continues to grow and
wage growth eases.
On the wage front, growth eased on a month-to-month
basis to just 0.1%, the smallest increase in two years and
essentially neutralizing the unexpectedly strong jump in hourly
pay in the prior month.
The annual increase, meanwhile, slowed to 4.3% from 4.4%.
While marking further progress, that level is still well above
the 3.0%-3.5% range that most policymakers view as consistent
with the Fed's 2% inflation target.