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EXPLAINER-Charting the Fed's economic data flow
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EXPLAINER-Charting the Fed's economic data flow
Apr 2, 2024 7:54 AM

April 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve held its

benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50%

range at its March 19-20 policy meeting, and officials continued

to anticipate approving three quarter-percentage-point rate cuts

by the end of 2024.

Before policymakers begin to ease borrowing costs, they say

they want to see more data confirming that inflation is

returning to the U.S. central bank's 2% target.

Here's a recap of recent key data watched by the central

bank:

JOB OPENINGS (Released April 2, next release May 1)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell keeps a close eye on the U.S. Labor

Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for

information on the imbalance between labor supply and demand,

and particularly on the number of job openings available to each

person who is without a job but looking for one. The ratio had

been falling steadily towards its pre-pandemic level, but since

October has remained in the 1.35-1.43 range, higher than the

1.2-to-1 level seen before the health crisis.

The number fell in the most recent release, for

February, as the number of people seeking work rose, pushing up

the unemployment rate.

Other aspects of the survey, like the quits rate, have edged

back to pre-pandemic levels.

INFLATION (PCE released March 29; next release CPI on April

10):

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index,

which the Fed uses to set its 2% inflation target, increased at

a 2.5% annual rate in February, up from the 2.4% rate seen in

January. Core inflation stripped of volatile food and energy

prices rose 2.8%, a slight decline from the upwardly revised

2.9% in January. Neither number is likely to boost confidence

among Fed policymakers that inflation will steadily return to

their target.

The CPI had risen 3.2% on a year-on-year basis in February,

up from 3.1% in the prior month, and higher than analysts

expected. The core rate excluding food and energy costs,

meanwhile, only edged down to 3.8% from 3.9%, another reminder

that the Fed's inflation battle may last longer than

anticipated. Rising gasoline and shelter costs contributed the

bulk of the CPI increase. Whether the Fed's hoped-for consistent

easing in housing costs is imminent remains uncertain.

EMPLOYMENT (Released March 8; next release April 5):

U.S. firms added a larger-than-expected 275,000 jobs in

February, though employment gains in the previous two months

were revised lower by 167,000. The unemployment rate rose to a

two-year high of 3.9% as a rise in the size of the workforce was

outweighed by a larger increase in the number of people

reporting they were out of work.

Fed officials have become more comfortable with the idea

that continued strong job growth could still allow inflation to

fall, especially if the supply of labor continues to grow and

wage growth eases.

On the wage front, growth eased on a month-to-month

basis to just 0.1%, the smallest increase in two years and

essentially neutralizing the unexpectedly strong jump in hourly

pay in the prior month.

The annual increase, meanwhile, slowed to 4.3% from 4.4%.

While marking further progress, that level is still well above

the 3.0%-3.5% range that most policymakers view as consistent

with the Fed's 2% inflation target.

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