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EXPLAINER-Charting the Fed's economic data flow
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EXPLAINER-Charting the Fed's economic data flow
Jun 4, 2024 9:12 AM

(Updates with JOLTS release in paragraphs 4-6)

June 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve held its

benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50%

range at its April 30-May 1 policy meeting.

Policymakers remain uncertain about the timing of a first

rate cut and say they want to see more data confirming that

inflation will fall, even if slowly.

Among the key statistics they are watching:

JOB OPENINGS (

Released June 4

; next release July 2):

In a sign of the job market's continued return to

normal, the level of job openings declined again in April and

pushed the number of open jobs available for each unemployed

person down to 1.24, the lowest level since June of 2021. It is

now effectively back to where it was in the years before the

COVID-19 pandemic.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has kept a close eye on the U.S.

Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

(JOLTS)

for information on the imbalance between labor supply and

demand, and the pandemic-era jump to more than 2 to 1 in the

number of open jobs for each available worker was emblematic of

the time.

Things have cooled substantially. Other aspects of the

survey, like the quits rate, also have edged back to

pre-pandemic levels in what Fed officials view as a balance

between supply and demand emerging in the labor market overall.

INFLATION (PCE released May 31; next release CPI June 12):

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.7%

in April, matching the rise in March. Core prices, stripped of

volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.8%, also the same as the

month before.

The Fed uses the PCE index to set its 2% inflation target,

and the April report keeps alive the concern mentioned by some

policymakers that inflation may get lodged at a rate too far

above target to ignore.

But there was some glimmer of progress. On a month-to-month

basis the core index rose 0.2% in April versus 0.3% in the prior

month, beating analysts' expectations. There were also signs of

slowing demand, with real spending and real disposable personal

income both dropping slightly, a possible precursor to a further

easing of price pressures.

The separate index of consumer prices rose more slowly than

anticipated in April, a respite from three months of prices

rising faster than policymakers expected. The headline consumer

price index rose at a 3.4% annual pace versus 3.5% in March,

while the rate was 3.6% in April after excluding food and energy

compared to 3.8% "core" inflation in the prior month.

None of the recent data has been enough for Fed officials to

declare they have regained confidence inflation is on its way

down.

RETAIL SALES (Released May 15; next release June 18):

Consumer spending flatlined in April, and downward revisions

to earlier data pointed to the sort of slowing demand Fed

officials have said may be needed to finish their inflation

fight.

The unchanged retail sales reading for April was reported

after unexpectedly strong spending led Fed officials to counsel

patience before any rate cuts, and argue that the full impact of

prior rate hikes had not yet had its full effect on the economy.

EMPLOYMENT (Released May 3; next release June 7):

U.S. firms added 175,000 jobs in April, fewer than expected

and a rare drop below the average pace of 183,000 seen before

the pandemic. Average job growth in recent months remains above

240,000, and the unemployment rate in April, at 3.9%, remained

below 4% for the 27th straight month.

But while the figure is still healthy, the decline will be

welcomed by Fed officials as evidence the job market is coming

into better balance, countering a run of recent data that

prompted talk of a reaccelerating economy.

Fed officials have become more comfortable with the idea

that continued strong job growth could still allow inflation to

fall, especially if the supply of labor keeps growing and wage

growth eases. Both did in April: Workforce growth was a modest

87,000. But the annual pace of wage growth fell to 3.9%, the

slowest since June 2021 and edging closer to the 3.0%-3.5% range

that most policymakers view as consistent with the Fed's

inflation target.

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