(Updates with JOLTS release in paragraphs 4-6)
June 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve held its
benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50%
range at its April 30-May 1 policy meeting.
Policymakers remain uncertain about the timing of a first
rate cut and say they want to see more data confirming that
inflation will fall, even if slowly.
Among the key statistics they are watching:
JOB OPENINGS (
Released June 4
; next release July 2):
In a sign of the job market's continued return to
normal, the level of job openings declined again in April and
pushed the number of open jobs available for each unemployed
person down to 1.24, the lowest level since June of 2021. It is
now effectively back to where it was in the years before the
COVID-19 pandemic.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has kept a close eye on the U.S.
Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
(JOLTS)
for information on the imbalance between labor supply and
demand, and the pandemic-era jump to more than 2 to 1 in the
number of open jobs for each available worker was emblematic of
the time.
Things have cooled substantially. Other aspects of the
survey, like the quits rate, also have edged back to
pre-pandemic levels in what Fed officials view as a balance
between supply and demand emerging in the labor market overall.
INFLATION (PCE released May 31; next release CPI June 12):
The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.7%
in April, matching the rise in March. Core prices, stripped of
volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.8%, also the same as the
month before.
The Fed uses the PCE index to set its 2% inflation target,
and the April report keeps alive the concern mentioned by some
policymakers that inflation may get lodged at a rate too far
above target to ignore.
But there was some glimmer of progress. On a month-to-month
basis the core index rose 0.2% in April versus 0.3% in the prior
month, beating analysts' expectations. There were also signs of
slowing demand, with real spending and real disposable personal
income both dropping slightly, a possible precursor to a further
easing of price pressures.
The separate index of consumer prices rose more slowly than
anticipated in April, a respite from three months of prices
rising faster than policymakers expected. The headline consumer
price index rose at a 3.4% annual pace versus 3.5% in March,
while the rate was 3.6% in April after excluding food and energy
compared to 3.8% "core" inflation in the prior month.
None of the recent data has been enough for Fed officials to
declare they have regained confidence inflation is on its way
down.
RETAIL SALES (Released May 15; next release June 18):
Consumer spending flatlined in April, and downward revisions
to earlier data pointed to the sort of slowing demand Fed
officials have said may be needed to finish their inflation
fight.
The unchanged retail sales reading for April was reported
after unexpectedly strong spending led Fed officials to counsel
patience before any rate cuts, and argue that the full impact of
prior rate hikes had not yet had its full effect on the economy.
EMPLOYMENT (Released May 3; next release June 7):
U.S. firms added 175,000 jobs in April, fewer than expected
and a rare drop below the average pace of 183,000 seen before
the pandemic. Average job growth in recent months remains above
240,000, and the unemployment rate in April, at 3.9%, remained
below 4% for the 27th straight month.
But while the figure is still healthy, the decline will be
welcomed by Fed officials as evidence the job market is coming
into better balance, countering a run of recent data that
prompted talk of a reaccelerating economy.
Fed officials have become more comfortable with the idea
that continued strong job growth could still allow inflation to
fall, especially if the supply of labor keeps growing and wage
growth eases. Both did in April: Workforce growth was a modest
87,000. But the annual pace of wage growth fell to 3.9%, the
slowest since June 2021 and edging closer to the 3.0%-3.5% range
that most policymakers view as consistent with the Fed's
inflation target.