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EXPLAINER-Charting the Fed's economic data flow
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EXPLAINER-Charting the Fed's economic data flow
Jul 2, 2024 8:08 AM

(Updates with release of JOLTS)

July 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve held its

benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50%

range at the conclusion of its June 11-12 policy meeting.

U.S. central bank officials remain uncertain about the

timing of a first rate cut and say they want to see more data

confirming that inflation will fall, even if slowly.

Among the key statistics they are watching:

JOB OPENINGS (Released July 2; next release July 30):

In a sign of the job market's continued strength, the

level of

job openings

rose slightly in May, while the number of open jobs

available for each unemployed person remained around 1.22, near

where it was in the years before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has kept a close eye on the U.S.

Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

(JOLTS)

for information on the imbalance between labor supply and

demand, and the pandemic-era jump to more than 2 to 1 in the

number of open jobs for each available worker was emblematic of

the time.

Things have cooled substantially. Other aspects of the

survey, like the quits rate - unchanged at 2.2 since November -

have edged back to pre-pandemic levels in what Fed officials

view as an emerging balance between the supply and demand for

workers.

INFLATION (PCE released June 28; next release CPI July

11):

The personal consumption expenditures price index, used by

the Fed to set its 2% inflation target, eased in May to a 2.6%

annual rate, from 2.7% in the prior month, giving a sense that

inflation may be drifting lower as the central bank hopes.

Core prices, stripped of volatile food and energy costs,

dropped to 2.6% in May from 2.8% in April.

On a month-to-month basis, the PCE index was flat, and

officials have begun to pay closer attention to signs of

weakening demand in the economy as a precursor to a slowed pace

of price increases.

The consumer price index, meanwhile, was flat in May, the

first unchanged month in nearly two years and a further respite

from a surprise jump in prices earlier this year. The headline

CPI rose at a 3.3% annual pace versus 3.4% in April, while the

rate was 3.4% in May after excluding food and energy compared to

3.6% "core" inflation in the prior month.

The lower-than-expected inflation for the month could begin

rebuilding confidence among Fed officials that price pressures

are easing.

EMPLOYMENT (Released June 7; next release July 5):

U.S. firms added a higher-than-expected 272,000 jobs in May,

a solid beat over what economists expected that will likely add

to sentiment among Fed officials that there is no rush to cut

interest rates given the strength of hiring.

The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4%, the highest level

in more than two years. Average job growth in recent months

remains above 240,000.

Fed officials have become more comfortable with the idea

that continued strong job growth could still allow inflation to

fall, especially if the supply of labor keeps growing and wage

growth eases.

Neither happened in May. The number of people in a job or

looking for work fell, while average hourly wages rose 4.1%

compared to a year ago. The Fed generally considers wage growth

in the range of 3.0%-3.5% as consistent with its 2% inflation

target.

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