(Updates with release of JOLTS)
July 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve held its
benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50%
range at the conclusion of its June 11-12 policy meeting.
U.S. central bank officials remain uncertain about the
timing of a first rate cut and say they want to see more data
confirming that inflation will fall, even if slowly.
Among the key statistics they are watching:
JOB OPENINGS (Released July 2; next release July 30):
In a sign of the job market's continued strength, the
level of
job openings
rose slightly in May, while the number of open jobs
available for each unemployed person remained around 1.22, near
where it was in the years before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has kept a close eye on the U.S.
Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
(JOLTS)
for information on the imbalance between labor supply and
demand, and the pandemic-era jump to more than 2 to 1 in the
number of open jobs for each available worker was emblematic of
the time.
Things have cooled substantially. Other aspects of the
survey, like the quits rate - unchanged at 2.2 since November -
have edged back to pre-pandemic levels in what Fed officials
view as an emerging balance between the supply and demand for
workers.
INFLATION (PCE released June 28; next release CPI July
11):
The personal consumption expenditures price index, used by
the Fed to set its 2% inflation target, eased in May to a 2.6%
annual rate, from 2.7% in the prior month, giving a sense that
inflation may be drifting lower as the central bank hopes.
Core prices, stripped of volatile food and energy costs,
dropped to 2.6% in May from 2.8% in April.
On a month-to-month basis, the PCE index was flat, and
officials have begun to pay closer attention to signs of
weakening demand in the economy as a precursor to a slowed pace
of price increases.
The consumer price index, meanwhile, was flat in May, the
first unchanged month in nearly two years and a further respite
from a surprise jump in prices earlier this year. The headline
CPI rose at a 3.3% annual pace versus 3.4% in April, while the
rate was 3.4% in May after excluding food and energy compared to
3.6% "core" inflation in the prior month.
The lower-than-expected inflation for the month could begin
rebuilding confidence among Fed officials that price pressures
are easing.
EMPLOYMENT (Released June 7; next release July 5):
U.S. firms added a higher-than-expected 272,000 jobs in May,
a solid beat over what economists expected that will likely add
to sentiment among Fed officials that there is no rush to cut
interest rates given the strength of hiring.
The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4%, the highest level
in more than two years. Average job growth in recent months
remains above 240,000.
Fed officials have become more comfortable with the idea
that continued strong job growth could still allow inflation to
fall, especially if the supply of labor keeps growing and wage
growth eases.
Neither happened in May. The number of people in a job or
looking for work fell, while average hourly wages rose 4.1%
compared to a year ago. The Fed generally considers wage growth
in the range of 3.0%-3.5% as consistent with its 2% inflation
target.