(Adds detail on BOJ's lending facility in paragraph 7)
By Rocky Swift and Kevin Buckland
TOKYO, June 17 (Reuters) - The normally sedate Japanese
government bond (JGB) market has attracted global attention in
recent weeks as a surge in yields sounded warnings for deeply
indebted governments.
Yields on super-long JGBs touched record levels last month,
meaning higher borrowing costs for the government and creating
urgency for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Ministry of Finance to
steady the market.
The BOJ on Tuesday laid out a new plan to decelerate the
pace of its balance sheet drawdown next year in the face of
rising risks such as the Middle East conflict and U.S. tariffs.
Here's what you need to know:
WHAT DID THE BOJ CHANGE?
After many years of monetary stimulus to prop up Japan's
flagging economy, the BOJ had bought more than half of all JGBs
and is now trying to gracefully shrink those holdings in a
process called quantitative tightening.
Under a plan laid out last July, the BOJ has been slowing
its monthly bond purchases by around 400 billion yen ($2.76
billion) steps each quarter. So in the current quarter, the
central bank is buying 4.1 trillion yen of JGBs each month, down
from 4.5 trillion yen each month from January through March.
The BOJ said on Tuesday the tapering pace will slow to 200
billion yen step changes per quarter from next April.
The central bank also decided to allow investors to keep
more varieties of 10-year notes they borrow through its lending
facility. The measure is expected to improve liquidity in the
market and speed up the BOJ's divestiture of bonds.
HOW DID WE GET HERE?
Japan has about 1.3 quadrillion yen ($9.07 trillion) in
outstanding debt securities, the world's second-biggest amount
after the $28.2 trillion U.S. Treasuries market.
Persistent fiscal deficits have caused Japan's ratio of debt
to gross domestic product (GDP) to expand to about 250%, the
highest in the developed world. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba
said last month the nation's fiscal situation was worse than
that of Greece.
But unlike Greece, whose debt-to-GDP ratio was around 150%
when the nation was bailed out in 2010, about 90% of Japan's
debt is held domestically. That makes the JGB market less
vulnerable to global investors who punish profligate governments
by selling their debt, so-called bond vigilantes.
WHAT TRIGGERED THE JGB SELL-OFF?
Long-dated bonds have sold off around the world in recent
weeks as investors grew wary about widening fiscal deficits and
debt piles among major issuers, concerns encapsulated by Moody's
downgrade of the United States on May 17.
But Japan has some unique issues. Lawmakers are mulling cash
handouts and other stimulus to woo voters ahead of an upper
house election slated for July. Also, demand has fallen off for
super-long bonds among traditional buyers.
Japan's life insurers, for example, have steadily bought the
securities over recent years to comply with new solvency
regulations. With that buying mostly complete, insurers are now
shifting into higher-yielding debt.
A 20-year JGB auction last month laid bare the precarious
situation. Demand was the weakest since 1987, as indicated by
the auction's tail - the difference between the lowest and
average accepted prices.
That triggered a long-term debt sell-off
That sent 40-year yields to a record high 3.675%, 30-year
rates to an all-time peak of 3.185%, and 20-year yields to
2.595%, the highest since October 2020.
Subsequent sales of 30- and 40-year securities also saw weak
demand, sparking concerns of a runaway increase in borrowing
costs.
WHAT WAS THE RESPONSE?
The rapid run-up in JGB yields spooked policymakers. In
years past, Japan's central bank has come to the rescue in
volatile markets by buying bonds and stocks.
However, under Governor Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ has committed to
shrinking its balance sheet, leaving the finance ministry to
take the lead in calming markets.
Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that higher rates
could further imperil Japan's finances and pledged "appropriate"
debt management. The government issued rare warnings about
rising yields in its economic roadmap last Friday.
Ueda acknowledged views that demand for super-long bonds had
declined and that volatility in those yields could impact
shorter rates, which have a more direct economic impact.
The finance ministry is now planning on trimming issuance of
20-, 30-, and 40-year bonds, balancing those reductions with
increases of shorter-term notes, Reuters has reported. The
ministry is also considering buying back some super-long JGBs.
The rise in yields means JGBs are increasingly attractive
for overseas investors, especially those looking to decrease
dollar exposure. But foreign holders are more likely to dip in
and out of the market, creating volatility.
Kato has in recent days talked up the importance of domestic
ownership of national debt and proposed a new type of
floating-rate note and allowing unlisted companies to buy bonds
designed for individual investors.
WHAT'S NEXT?
The finance ministry will meet market participants later
this month, which will inform its decisions on bond issuance and
buyback changes.
An auction of 20-year JGBs on June 24 will be the next key
test of demand for super-long bonds.
($1 = 144.8200 yen)