Jan 7 (Reuters) - U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil ( XOM )

said on Wednesday that lower crude oil prices could cut its

fourth-quarter upstream earnings by about $800 million to $1.2

billion.

Oil prices declined 9.2% ‌during the three months

ended December 31, as concerns about oversupply and tariffs

outweighed geopolitical risks.

Brent ​crude futures shed about 19% in 2025, the most

substantial annual ‍percentage decline since 2020 and their third

straight year ⁠of losses, the ⁠longest such streak on record. U.S.

West Texas Intermediate crude logged an annual decline of

almost ‌20%.

The company said in a regulatory ​filing that changes in gas

prices could affect its quarterly upstream earnings from a

negative $300 million to as much as ⁠a positive $100 million.

Exxon's snapshot is ‍closely watched ​for clues on how the

broader oil sector will fare when companies begin releasing

quarterly results in a few weeks.

Analysts expect Exxon ‍to report adjusted earnings of $1.66

per share for the fourth quarter, according to data compiled by

LSEG.

"However, we think many brokers, including us, have yet to

mark to market, which could lead to lower earnings estimates

given the lower oil and gas prices compared with expectations at

the ​beginning ‍of 4Q25," Scotiabank analysts said in a note.

Exxon also said restructuring charges could negatively

impact overall earnings by about $200 million. ​Late last year,

the company had flagged that its corporate plan focused on

cutting costs and boosting profit even through periods of oil

price volatility.

Still, it signaled that stronger margins in the refining

business could boost earnings by $300 million to $700 million in

the fourth quarter.

Exxon is set to release results for the final ​quarter of the

year on January 30, the filing showed.

The energy major had posted $5.7 billion in upstream

earnings for the third quarter. Its total profit stood at $7.5

billion during the ‍period.

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi

Majumdar and Anil D'Silva)