On Friday the markets had a decent session, the nominal yields kept going up. The inversion has happened pretty much on most curve. 2s/10s treasury yield curve has flattened from plus 79 basis points to minus 8 basis points.

Basically stagflation, and recession fears sometime down the line are the concerns. All historical evidence points to the fact that from the time that these inversion happens, they could be significantly lead-lag, like six months to a year, year and a half before those kinds of conditions finally show up.

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First Published:Apr 4, 2022 9:02 AM IST