(Updates prices at 1525 GMT, adds quote)
By Alun John and Stefano Rebaudo
July 29 (Reuters) - Germany's 10-year yield dropped on
Monday, the start of a week packed with crucial economic events,
including euro area inflation data, and policy meetings at the
Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the
euro area's benchmark, dropped 5 basis points (bps) to 2.35%,
its lowest in six weeks. A break below 2.34% would take it to
its lowest since April.
Germany's two-year bond yield, already at five-
month lows, was down a further 2 bps at 2.64%.
Yields move inversely to prices.
"When you look at the behaviour of bond markets in the past
week we've seen a pretty strong rally that seems to be extending
into today's session as well," said Peter Schaffrik, chief
European macro strategist, RBC Capital Markets.
He said that rally appeared to be driven by a reduction in
breakeven inflation rates and some fears that economic data
would turn sour - "we've seen that in the PMIs in Europe to some
degree last week, while the labour market in the U.S. is the
pivotal thing on which everything hinges."
That always important U.S. nonfarm payrolls data is due
Friday.
But there is plenty for markets to digest before then
including European inflation data, which could shape
expectations for European Central Bank policy.
The ECB cut rates in June, and money markets are fully
pricing in two further 25-bp rate cuts, with the first likely in
September. They show a small chance of an additional move by
year-end.
The Fed is expected to keep rates on hold on Wednesday, with
the focus on how firmly they tee up a September cut, the BOJ
could raise rates slightly, while markets see around a 50%
chance the Bank of England could start its rate-cutting cycle on
Thursday.
"The BoE meeting could have a spillover effect into the euro
zone," said Michiel Tukker, senior European rates strategist at
ING.
"Markets are not just wondering about whether the ECB cuts
in September but whether that leads to a broader easing cycle.
If the BoE starts cutting now that could be symbolic and bring
markets to appreciate that narrative.
Yields were lower on Monday across Europe. Italy's 10-year
yield was down 5 bps at 3.71%. The yield
gap between Italian and German 10-year bonds - a
gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold Italian debt
- was little changed at 134 bps.
The spread between French and German government bond yields
, closely watched since it widened sharply in the
run up to June's election, was at 71 bps, not far from its
highest level after the French vote of around 72 bps.
(Editing by Bernadette Baum, Chizu Nomiyama and Christina
Fincher)