(Updates at 1145 GMT)
By Samuel Indyk
LONDON, March 5 (Reuters) - Germany's 10-year bond yield
slipped on Tuesday while the spread between Italian and German
10-year yields was at its tightest since February 2022 as
markets braced for pivotal risk events including the European
Central Bank's policy announcement.
The ECB is seen leaving its main policy rates unchanged on
Thursday, at their record high, with markets watching for clues
from President Christine Lagarde on when interest rate cuts
might begin.
Stickier inflation in Europe and the United States and a
more robust global growth outlook have seen markets scale back
expectations for easing this year, with the timing of the first
interest rate cuts also pushed back.
Money market traders now expect ECB policy easing to begin
in June, with around 4 basis points (bps) of cuts priced in for
April, implying just a 15% chance of lower interest rates then.
At the start of the year, an April rate cut was almost fully
priced in.
Traders are also pricing in only 90 bps of easing this year,
down from around 150 bps, or approximately six quarter-point
cuts, expected in January.
"Given the massive repricing that we've recently seen, it
would take quite a hawkish rhetoric from the ECB to push markets
further in the hawkish direction," said Jussi Hiljanen, head of
rates strategy at lender SEB.
"I think they will essentially repeat the message from
previous meetings that rate hikes are over and that the summer
is probably the right time to begin cutting rates."
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the euro area's
benchmark, was last down 3 bps at 2.365%. The yield hit its
highest since November last Thursday at 2.513%.
The two-year yield, which is sensitive to changes
in policy rate expectations, was last down 1.5 bps at 2.8816%.
Markets will digest Britain's Spring Budget on Wednesday,
the first leg of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's
semi-annual testimony to Congress, and a raft of data, including
the U.S. payrolls report on Friday.
Meanwhile, Italy's 10-year bond yield, the
benchmark for the euro zone's periphery, was last down 8 bps to
3.743%, pushing the gap between German and Italian 10-year
yields to around 135 bps, its tightest since February 2022.
SEB's Hiljanen said the possible start of a cutting cycle,
improving global risk appetite and the decline in long-end
yields since October was adding to the positive sentiment in
Italian bonds.
"The lower yields become in Italy, the more sustainable
becomes the debt situation," Hiljanen said.