(Updates prices)
By Samuel Indyk
LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - Germany's 10-year bond
yield edged up on Monday after last week suffering its biggest
weekly fall since December, as central bank commentary left the
door open for the ECB and Federal Reserve to cut rates in June.
Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the
euro zone, was last up 3 basis points (bps) at 2.30%. It fell
14.5 bps last week, its biggest weekly drop in 12 weeks. It hit
2.233% on Friday, its lowest level since Feb. 2.
Yields fell across the globe as both Federal Reserve Chair
Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine
Lagarde signalled that June would be the likely starting point
for their easing cycles.
"Rate cuts are arriving and that is going to be bullish for
the front part of the yield curve," said Althea Spinozzi, head
of fixed income strategy at Saxo Bank.
Germany's two-year yield, which is sensitive to
changes in policy rates, rose 3 bps to 2.77%. Bond yields move
inversely to prices.
Mixed U.S. labour market data on Friday supported those
favouring easing to begin in the summer, with the economy adding
more jobs than anticipated, but the unemployment rate rising and
average hourly earnings increasing at a slower rate.
"The employment report and recent Fed comments are
consistent with our view that the Fed could start cutting rates
in June," said Mohit Kumar, European economist at Jefferies.
"A further slowdown in inflation over the coming months
should give enough confidence to the Fed that they can take
their foot off the brakes."
U.S. inflation numbers on Tuesday should provide more
evidence that price pressures are fading, but with the Fed now
in the blackout period before their March 19-20 meeting, there
will be no commentary from policymakers.
In Europe, money market traders are also betting on the
first ECB interest rate cut in June, while around 100 basis
points of easing is priced this year, implying four
quarter-point cuts in 2024.
"The big question bondholders are asking themselves is
whether a faster deceleration in inflation might lead the ECB to
cut rates in April," said Saxo Bank's Spinozzi.
Elsewhere, Portuguese bonds were steady after the
centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) won Sunday's general
election by a slim margin and is preparing to govern without an
outright majority while the far-right Chega warned of
instability if it is not included in government.
Portugal's 10-year government bond yield rose 4
bps to 2.76%, keeping the spread between Portuguese and German
10-year yields steady at around 63.5 bps.
"We do not expect the election result to have much market
impact after the recent upgrade," said Jens Peter Sørensen,
director, fixed income research at Danske Bank, referring to
S&P's sovereign upgrade which will allow Portugal's bonds to be
included in more bond indices.
"This should be positive for PGBs (Portuguese government
bonds) but also other peripherals that are next in line such as
Spain that are up for review on Friday by Moody's," Sørensen
said.