Feb 12 (Reuters) - German government bond yields rose by
over 10 bps in the last two days as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell said the central bank is not in a rush to cut interest
rates, and U.S. data supported expectations for a pause in the
monetary easing cycle.
U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly 1-1/2
years in January.
Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to make any further
interest rate cuts but stood ready to do so if inflation
declines further or the job market weakens.
Traders priced in 26 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cuts by
year-end. They discounted 40 bps on Tuesday before
Powell's speech.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the euro area's
benchmark, was last up 5.5 basis points (bps) at 2.48%, the
highest since January 31, after rising by 7 bps the day before.
U.S. Treasury yields jumped 12 bps to 4.65%.
German borrowing costs edged up to a one-week high before
the U.S. figures as markets digested tariff developments,
comments from the Fed chair and a rise in energy prices.
"Today's inflation data support our view that inflation will
remain above target throughout this year, preventing the Fed
from cutting interest rates," said Atakan Bakiskan, U.S.
Economist at Berenberg.
"Although disinflation in shelter and non-market-based
services can help build this confidence (that the inflation
trend is moving downward), the Fed cannot ignore Trump."
Analysts expect tariffs to boost inflation in the U.S.,
while in the euro area, they could trigger a deflationary shock,
as the negative impact on growth may outweigh the inflationary
effects of retaliatory measures.
However, European gas prices (TTF) have reached the highest
in almost two years this week, and re-ignited inflation concerns
among market participants.
"With the recent rise in commodity prices and the levying of
trade tariffs, the risk of further upside surprises will be
front-of-mind for investors and the Federal Reserve," said Colin
Finlayson, fixed income investment manager at Aegon AM.
Work on the administration's reciprocal tariffs is ongoing,
and talks with other nations are underway, U.S. President Donald
Trump's economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, said on Wednesday.
Money markets priced in a European Central Bank deposit
facility rate at 1.97% in December from
1.85% on Monday before Powell's speech. The deposit rate is
currently at 2.75%.
Germany's 2-year yield rose 5 bps to 2.13%.
Italy's 10-year yield was up 3.5 bps at 3.56%.
The yield gap between Italian and German yields
was at 108 bps.
(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo, editing by)