LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - German government bond yields
fell for a sixth day on Thursday, reflecting their longest
stretch of gains since November, after the U.S. Federal Reserve
signalled the likelihood of a rate cut as early as September,
which boosted Treasuries.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that price pressures were now
easing broadly in the economy and that if coming data evolveed
as anticipated, support for cutting rates would grow.
Bund yields, the benchmark for the euro zone
bloc, fell 1.5 basis points to 2.289, heading for a sixth
straight day of declines, having ended July with a decline of 18
basis points. Yields move inversely to bond prices.
"The outlook (for the Fed monetary path) remains uncertain,
with the U.S. presidential election and resulting political
policy shifts adding to the uncertainty," said economists at
PIMCO, after arguing that the economic backdrop will probably
lead the Fed to cut rates several times, starting in September.
The spread between U.S. 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds
widened 2.5 basis points to 177 bps, reversing
much of Wednesday's 3.27-bp narrowing.
The Bank of England delivers its monetary policy decision
later in the day and markets see a 61% chance of a cut. Ten-year
gilt yields were down 2.5 bps at 3.95%, with their
premium over Bunds tightening 3 bps to 165.
The BoE looks in a position to cut interest rates after
holding them at a 16-year high of 5.25% for the past year,
though markets and economists are far from certain the British
central bank will take the plunge.
"While we think that the data doesn't provide clear signals
that inflation persistence is beaten, we also think that the
dovish BoE could be willing to tolerate and explain away some
upside strength to justify a cut," said BofA in a research note.
If the BoE should leave rates unchanged, then September will
be the month to watch.
Italian 10-year yields rose one basis point to
3.66%, leaving their premium over Bunds 2 basis
points wider at 137 bps.
France comes to market later with a long-term bond auction,
as does Spain.
"European government bond primary markets remain busy with
auctions scheduled in long-end OATs, where the auction size is
lower than usual but in line with the seasonal pattern,"
Commerzbank strategists said in a note about the French debt
auction.
The gap between French and German yields - a
gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold French
government bonds - hit a fresh post-election high at 72.70 bps.
It widened recently as markets worried the parliament could
reverse President Emmanuel Macron's pension reform, increasing
public spending.