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Germany's 10-year bund yield hits two-month high
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Germany's 10-year bund yield hits two-month high
Oct 22, 2024 12:27 PM

(Updates at 1456 GMT)

By Harry Robertson

LONDON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Germany's 10-year bond yield

rose to its highest level in almost two months on Tuesday,

tracking U.S. Treasuries, as a range of factors including doubts

about the speed of central bank rate cuts pushed down prices.

Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark

for the euro zone, rose as high as 2.334%, the highest since

Sept. 3, after climbing 10 bps on Monday. It was last up 3 basis

points (bps) to 2.307%. Yields move inversely to prices.

Bond market analysts have struggled to pinpoint an exact

driver for the rise in longer-dated bond yields in Europe and

the United States.

But they have pointed to stronger than expected U.S.

economic data causing traders to moderate their expectations for

rate cuts from the influential Federal Reserve, as well as a

rise in oil prices and concerns about high levels of bond

issuance as governments run large budget deficits.

Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research for the Americas

at ING, said European bond markets were being "bullied" by U.S.

Treasury yields, which have risen as investors have reduced

their bets on quick Fed rate cuts.

After the Fed's bigger than usual rate cut in September,

investors expected another 80 bps of cuts this year. But

following strong jobs and retail sales data, they now expect

just 40 bps of reductions.

"U.S. macro data continues to refuse to lie down," Garvey

said. "In the end, direction is being bullied by Treasuries."

The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield was up 1 bp on

Tuesday to 4.1917% but has risen almost 40 bps this month, on

track for its biggest one-month rise since April.

Italy's 10-year yield rose as high as 3.569% on

Tuesday, the highest in a week.

The gap between Italian and German yields was

slightly wider at 123 bps.

It rose 6 bps on Monday after falling to its lowest since

around early 2022 as investors warmed to Italy's efforts to

bring down its public debt, which led credit rating agency Fitch

to raise its outlook on the country on Friday.

Germany's two-year bond yield, which is sensitive

to European Central Bank rate expectations, was last up 1 bp at

2.185%, after rising 7 bps on Monday.

Longer-dated yields have risen more than shorter-dated ones,

leading to a pronounced steepening of the yield curve that

measures the difference between yields.

Money market pricing shows traders still see a 10% chance of

a 50-bp ECB rate cut in December after euro zone inflation fell

below the ECB's 2% target last month, helping shorter-dated

yields stay better-anchored.

"The move (in European yields) could be more characterised

as a repricing of the ECB endpoint, which at around 1.8% now, is

slowly making its way back to 2%," said Harvey.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday that

inflation may fall back towards 2% quicker than previously

thought, supporting the case for further rate cuts.

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