NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are at fresh
records, bitcoin is soaring and investors are spurning insurance
against portfolio declines as evidence that the economy is
headed for a so-called soft landing whets market participants'
appetite for risk.
Call it the Goldilocks trade - a bet that the Federal
Reserve will be able to tame inflation while keeping growth from
declining too rapidly. While that outcome was in doubt as
recently as last month, investors have been reassured by a more
recent spate of economic data - including Wednesday's report
showing U.S. consumer prices slowed more than expected in April.
Investors' newfound renewed penchant for risk-taking can be
seen across asset classes. The S&P 500 hit a new record high on
Wednesday and is up 11% year-to-date as it rebounds from last
month's decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index and Dow
Jones Industrial Average scaled fresh heights as well.
Assets such as bitcoin and meme stocks, which are often seen
as barometers of risk appetite though their ties to economic
fundamentals are often questioned, have also soared.
Meanwhile, participants' growing confidence was reflected in
a survey of fund managers by BofA Global Research: the firm's
broadest measure of investor sentiment, based on cash levels,
equity allocations and economic growth expectations, stood at
its most bullish since November 2021.
"Investors' appetite for risk assets appears to be on the
rise," said Garrett DeSimone, head quant at OptionMetrics.
Here's a chart-based look at how investors' new found
optimism is reverberating throughout markets:
After worries over the Federal Reserve's ability to cut
interest rates in the face of stubborn inflation prompted a 4.2%
pullback for the S&P 500 index in April, investors now appear
eager to ride stocks higher.
Many are opting to do so with little attention to hedging
their downside. The Cboe Volatility index, which measures
demand for protection from market swings, closed at a four-month
low on Wednesday. The lesser-known VVIX index, a gauge
of how much investors expect the VIX to move, has also dipped
and now stands near its lowest level in about a decade.
While there are few takers for options hedges that would
guard against a drop in the market, call contracts that would
benefit from further stock market gains are in high demand.
The one month average daily trading in calls outnumber puts
1.2-to-1, the most bullish this measure has been in about a
month, according to data from Options analytics firm Trade
Alert.
Some market participants have also pointed to the rally in
meme stocks as a sign of investors' robust risk appetite.
Shares of GameStop have soared 140% over the last week,
after a string of posts on the X platform from an account linked
to Keith Gill, the central figure behind the previous frenzy.
Shares of other companies, including theater chain AMC
and headphones maker Koss ( KOSS ) have followed suit. Like
GameStop, many of the stocks are heavily shorted and their
fundamentals have declined over the last few years.
Hopes that softening U.S. economic data may give the Fed the
leeway to cut rates later this year has pressured the dollar in
recent sessions. The greenback, a popular haven during uncertain
times, has dipped 2% against a basket of its peers since
hitting a 17-month high in mid-April.
That has helped boost some emerging market currencies, which
are sometimes considered riskier than those tied to developed
markets.
The Polish zloty is up 3.7% for the month while the South
African rand and the Colombian peso have advanced 2.8% and 2.7%,
respectively.
Bond market volatility expectations have also slipped in
recent sessions. U.S. Treasury yields - which move inversely to
bond prices - fell to more than five-week lows on Wednesday.
Bitcoin, often viewed as a key barometer of
risk-taking sentiment, hit a 3-week high of $66,261 on Tuesday
and is creeping closer to the record high of $73,803 touched in
March.