* Declines in semiconductors, tech drag on S&P 500 since
June record high
* About two-thirds of index stocks higher in that time,
indicating market broadening
* S&P 500 equal weight outpacing standard index YTD, another
broadening sign
By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 has
struggled to make further headway since its early June record
peak, but that tepid performance belies churning beneath the
market's surface that could take on greater importance with this
week's megacap earnings reports.
The small number of technology and other heavyweight stocks
at the heart of the AI trade that have been driving the bull
market are now faltering. The "Magnificent Seven" megacap stocks
exchange-traded fund has declined over 8% since the
June peak, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index,
which soared on AI-related optimism earlier in the year, has
pulled back more than 19%.
That has acted as a drag on the S&P 500, which has dipped
over 2% since June 2. At the same time, though, other parts of
the market have perked up. About two-thirds of the benchmark's
components have gained since the June record high, and eight of
its 11 sectors are higher.
That market broadening is a tradeoff many investors can
stomach, so long as the major tech-heavy indexes used as market
gauges avoid deeper declines. Broader gains could usher in a
more durable phase of the bull market that is less reliant on
the heavyweight stocks.
"It would be incredibly hard for us to outrun a bear market
in the Mag 7," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist for
Nationwide. "But the fact that we've seen such an aggressive
pullback in this group and the market has been flat-ish during
that period, I view that as incredibly healthy."
MAG 7 IN EARNINGS SPOTLIGHT
This tradeoff could be tested this week, when four of the
Mag 7 report quarterly results: Microsoft ( MSFT ) and Meta
report after the bell on Wednesday, with Apple ( AAPL )
and Amazon ( AMZN ) reporting on Thursday.
Two other Mag 7 companies, Alphabet and Tesla
, kicked off results for the group last week, with both
companies' shares sliding after their respective results.
Along with Microsoft ( MSFT ), Amazon ( AMZN ) and Meta, Google parent
Alphabet is one of the so-called hyperscalers - a clutch of tech
companies whose massive capital spending on AI data centers has
underpinned this year's AI rally, boosting semiconductors and
other companies involved in the buildout.
Alphabet further increased its spending plans last week, but
that raised concerns about whether it would reap sufficient
returns on its investments.
The market can absorb a "bad day for one of the names,"
Hackett said. However, he added: "I don't think the S&P can ...
even remain kind of where it is if there's a flushing of the AI
story."
ROTATION, NOT SELLING, FOR NOW
Since the June 2 high, healthcare and financials
have been the best-performing sectors, rising 14% and
12% respectively.
"There's a rotation that has been going on out of the
momentum-based trades like technology, and has shifted,
especially since the end of the quarter, to other areas of the
market that are perceived as less expensive or having
underperformed," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at
Dakota Wealth Management.
In another sign of broadening, the equal-weight version of
the S&P 500, which is a gauge of the average stock in
the index, has gained nearly 4% since June 2, compared with the
2.4% decline in the more heavyweight-influenced standard S&P
500.
"We're not seeing selling. We're just seeing money move from
one area of the market to another," said Jack Janasiewicz, lead
portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.
"That's pretty healthy, right? That's what a bull market is
based on."
MAG 7 STOCKS STILL HAVE HEFT
For 2026 overall, the equal-weight S&P 500 has climbed more
than 13% against an 8.5% rise for the standard S&P 500, closing
some of the latter's performance advantage during the bull run
that began in October 2022.
Indexes representing mid- and small-cap stocks have gained
about 15% and 19%, respectively, this year, another sign of
investors gravitating beyond megacap stocks.
One reason for that rotation is that while Mag 7 companies'
profit growth has outpaced the rest of the S&P 500 in recent
years, that gap has closed, investors said.
"Leadership is broadening beneath the surface, even though
that strength is not fully reflected in the headline index,"
said King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth
Management. "These moves make sense from a fundamental
perspective - earnings growth in the broader market is
forecasted to have higher earnings growth than the megacap tech
stocks by year-end."
Mag 7 stocks have posted mixed performance in 2026, with
only Apple's ( AAPL ) 25% year-to-date gain surpassing the increase for
the S&P 500.
Still, the stocks retain outsized influence, accounting on a
combined basis for about one-third of the weighting of the
overall index.
"You're talking about in a single week, some serious market
cap," said Chuck Carlson, CEO at Horizon Investment Services in
Hammond, Indiana. "They're going to have an impact on the S&P
500 one way or the other."