NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - Investors have shifted
from panicking about tariffs to relief buying, lifting the U.S.
stock market storm back to record highs as corporate earnings
and the U.S. economy held up better than many had expected
through a period of dramatic policy change.
The S&P 500, seen as the benchmark for the U.S. stock
market, closed at 6,173.07 on Friday, up 0.5% on the day -- its
first close above 6,144.15, its previous all-time closing high
from February 19.
In the intervening period, the S&P 500 fell as much as 18.9%
on a closing basis from the February level to April 8, nearly
enough to label the decline a bear market. Stocks plunged after
President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on
April 2 sparked broad concerns about an impending recession.
Worries eased as Trump moderated his harshest tariffs, and
the market rebounded.
The Nasdaq Composite also closed at a record
high on Friday, its first all-time peak since December 16,
confirming the tech-heavy index is in a bull market.
Stocks got their latest boost this week from easing
fears about conflict in the Middle East after Trump's
announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and optimism
about the Federal Reserve lowering borrowing costs in coming
months.
The past four months in the market reflected deep concerns
about Trump's trade and tax policy, said Rick Meckler, partner
at Cherry Lane Investments in New Jersey.
"In the investment public's mind, it went from a sense of
tremendous pessimism to what seems to be optimism that this will
all fall into place," Meckler said. Policy risk, however, is
"still there."
As worries eased, volatility measures have fallen
dramatically. The Cboe Volatility Index, an options-based
measure of investor anxiety, spiked in early April, hitting 60
and closing as high as 52.33 on April 8, its highest closing
level in five years.
The VIX index has since receded to just above 16, below its
long-term median of 17.7.
The market appears to be pricing downside risk at levels
similar to those seen before early April, when Trump unveiled
his tariffs, said Garrett DeSimone, head quantitative analyst at
OptionMetrics. But unlike the post-election rally late last
year, sentiment does not appear excessively bullish or
complacent, he said.
Investors said a stronger-than-expected first-quarter
earnings season for U.S. companies helped drive the rebound in
stocks. S&P 500 company profits overall rose 13.7% from a year
earlier, compared to an 8% gain expected as of April 1,
according to LSEG IBES.
"This was one of the most furious comebacks ever from a near
bear market, as trade worries were overblown, but so were all
the recession calls," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist
at Carson Group. "The economy is hanging in there and overall
first-quarter earnings were quite solid, sparking the huge
rally."
However, investors appear to be more concerned about the
corporate outlook from here. Estimates for earnings growth for
each of the next four quarters have fallen from expectations at
the start of April.
Investors have grown more upbeat about the stock market.
Bearish sentiment in early April had reached its highest levels
since the financial crisis, according to the weekly American
Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey.
While sentiment has trended more positively, bullish
sentiment is still below the historical average.
Also driving the rally has been renewed strength of the
"Magnificent Seven" megacap tech and growth stocks. That group,
which includes Microsoft ( MSFT ), Nvidia ( NVDA ) and Amazon ( AMZN )
, had led equity indexes higher the prior two years but
had gotten off to a rocky start in 2025.
Since April 8, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF
has jumped about 37% against a roughly 24% rise for the S&P 500.
Fueled by the Magnificent Seven, the S&P 500 posted
back-to-back annual gains of over 20% in 2023 and 2024. Even
with the latest record-high push, the index is up about 5% in
2025.
"I don't think anyone is really thinking this is an
explosive year as the last two were," Meckler said. "I think
it's more, 'Gee, we've come back a long way from the sell-off,
and if we finish the year positive 5% to 10%, that would be a
great year, given all that's happened.' "