Dipen Sheth, head of institutional research at HDFC Securities, spoke to CNBC-TV18 about the fourth-quarter earnings and shared his expectations for consumer goods companies and select IT stocks.
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On the fourth-quarter earnings, Sheth said, “We knew that auto numbers were going to be disastrous, rural consumption was a challenge and we wouldn’t see outstanding volume growth from FMCG companies. We were expecting to see blowout cement numbers. All of that is turning out to be true."
Talking about the likely election outcome, he said, "Last time around, it was easy to guess but this time around if the gathbandhan holds in paper and minds of the people then the outcome would be interesting. The dividing lines between a clear victory and a half victory and a loss are very thin at this point of time."
With regards to consumer stocks, Sheth said, “The value argument has always been that consumer stocks are expensive and at anywhere between 30 and 50 PE you should stay away from them. So, 2-3 quarters of disillusionment on earnings growth there they will become attractive again.”
"Consumption is a long-term thesis for India like infrastructure and consumer companies do not consume capital, so at some point, a 30 PE on Marico may look cheap. However, one needs to look at growth stocks and right now companies like HUL, Dabur are not at multiples where their growth would justify," said Sheth.
Sharing his rationale for liking Hexaware, he said, "The house owns the stock. US is not in any advance slowdown in terms of business opportunity for tech companies. Hexaware is cheapest of the midcap companies, has a rising exposure to the European market, deal wins are good, it is owned by PE firm now and sitting on huge reserves of cash. However, the only risk here is that the company has guided for lower growth in lower teens which his unambitious."
The house is also upbeat on Cholamandalam Finance and AU Small Finance.