We expect a 28 percent contraction in both GDP and GVA. If you strip out the performance of sectors such as agriculture and government spending, then the fall in core GVA would be even steeper because agriculture and government spending both seemed to have held up relatively better compared to other parts of the economy. Manufacturing has been quite weak, on an average the performance for the quarter was very weak and we anticipate more than 40 percent of contraction there.

Share Market Live

NSE

We are anticipating a 5.50 percent contraction for the full year.

Abhishek Upadhyay, Senior Economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership

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We feel that private sector banks have the ability to gain market share as they are structurally better placed, capital availability is better which enables them to keep gaining loan and deposit market share. In August and September, the big funding related risk is behind and there is visibility over asset quality scenario.

Vishal Goyal of UBS India

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Since March lows we have seen a ‘V’ shaped recovery in the markets. The frontline indices are up between 45-55 percent and in every month we have seen gains. From the market which was cheap in March, we have moved to a fair value zone where on a one year forward basis the markets are trading at about 21-22x. There could be a pullback in the markets and there seems to be a decent amount of probability for a pullback and some excesses to be taken off. We were overweight on equities as a house in the month of March and now we are advising our investors and our partners to be neutral on equities at this point of time.

Pankaj Tibrewal Sr VP & Equity Fund Manager Kotak Mahindra AMC

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Real estate has been lying low for a very long time because of low interest rates and a lot of other factors. So, select real estate players, infrastructure is going to be a big story, whether it is Adani or Godrej Properties or a lot of others and similarly link to that mortgage finance companies.

There is actual pain at the MSME, retail, and some corporate level. So, let us see how government handles it as to how this whole restructuring of debt, etc. and obviously the pressure would be felt by the banks.

Sanjay Dutt, Director, Quantum Securities

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The RIL-Future Retail deal values on an EV to sales basis is typically between 0.9 to 1 times FY20 sale, which is very favorable and best comparable will be DMart which is trading in upwards of 6 times on FY20. So relative to DMart, I think it is a very attractive acquisition and there is a significant scope for value creation towards minority shareholders for Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) as RIL takes over the operations.

Harshvardhan Dole, vice president institutional equities, IIFL

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Future Group has evolved the entire retail business in the country. There are huge synergies going along with Reliance primarily because Reliance adds almost 1,700-1,800 stores which are on the grocery and the lifestyle business by joining hands with Future in this deal. The minority shareholders are certainly going to get a fair deal.

Raghwendra Pande, executive vice president, ICICI Securities

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The mines ministry will have to notify the change in the MMDR Act. This act has to be amended and notified by the mines ministry whether it is 22.5 percent or more or less. If the act is amended and there is a policy decision on this, then all the mines do get affected. Not only NMDC, all other grants or allocations which have happened will get affected.

Sumit Deb, CMD, NMDC

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I think we are bottoming out. Q1 virtually had no demand, Q2 seems to be picking up and I believe August should be better than July. Even if it is flattish, it is more possibly to do with the supply chain constraint than anything else. This year again you would – factoring in Q1 and Q2 – see a reduction of maybe 30-35 percent but there is nothing to be concerned about because the entire economy was shut down in Q1. In Q2 the economy is opening up and Q3, Q4 could see growth and I am reasonably positive on Q4.

Gopal Mahadevan, whole-time director, president and chief financial officer at Ashok Leyland

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Our collections also have improved significantly over the months. September is the first full month without moratorium and we should be able to collect from the 90 percent of the customer. We are in touch with the customers throughout last 4-5 months and customers are coming out to the market, they are able to apply their vehicles and their earnings have gone up significantly.

Umesh Revankar, MD, Shriram Transport Finance

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The demand is picking but the supplies are constraint in the market that we represent- the semi-urban and rural market. The footfall at the dealerships have definitely gone up, at our branches we are seeing lot of consumers wanting to visit and ask for credit. But definitely supplies are constraint and that is what we have seen in June, July and August all the three months. There has been MoM improvement in collections every month. We do believe that at least in the rural market the farm cash flow have held up pretty level and the sentiments have turned positive that should really help overall collection, delinquency control and if supply side improves the overall disbursements can go up.

Ramesh Iyer, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services

First Published:Aug 31, 2020 6:42 PM IST