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INDIA BONDS-India bond yields end flat, traders eye Fed rate decision, outlook
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INDIA BONDS-India bond yields end flat, traders eye Fed rate decision, outlook
Dec 18, 2024 3:56 AM

MUMBAI, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Indian government bond yields

ended little changed on Wednesday, ahead of the monetary policy

decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the accompanying

guidance for 2025.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield ended at

6.7465%, compared with the previous close of 6.7588%.

"Market is waiting for the Fed meeting, and guidance and dot

plot projections would be the thing to watch out for in the

decision," said VRC Reddy, treasury head at Karur Vysya Bank.

The Fed's policy decision will come after Indian markets

close on Wednesday. While the U.S. central bank is widely

expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, markets are

wary of an uncertain outlook and cautious commentary for 2025.

With inflation in the world's largest economy remaining

comfortably above the central bank's 2% target, markets fear the

Fed may cite inflationary pressures to indicate a pause in rates

in the early part of the next year.

The debt market will also focus on the Fed's quarterly

economic projections and the updated dot plot for 2025. The dot

plot released in September showed a policy rate of 3.4% by the

end of 2025.

U.S. rate futures have priced in about two rate cuts in

2025, according to LSEG calculations.

The odds of a 25-bp cut were over 95%, while that for a

similar move in January stood at a mere 16%, according to the

CME FedWatch Tool.

Locally, investors are waiting for debt supply and minutes

of the Reserve Bank of India's December meeting, both due on

Friday.

The RBI maintained status quo on policy rates earlier this

month but infused liquidity into the banking system through a

cut in banks' cash reserve ratio.

Traders remained vigilant regarding the local currency,

which continued to decline to record lows, while cash shortage

within the banking system weighed on sentiment.

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