By Bhakti Tambe
MUMBAI, March 20 (Reuters) - Indian government bond
yields ended steady on Wednesday ahead of the conclusion of the
U.S. central bank meeting where the Federal Reserve is expected
to keep borrowing costs unchanged.
The benchmark 10-year yield ended at 7.0918%,
following its previous close of 7.0981%.
The Fed is scheduled to announce its monetary policy
decision after Indian market hours, against the backdrop of
recent data showing robust inflation in the world's largest
economy.
"We now see a high probability of 'no Fed cuts' in 2024 as
they struggle to get to the last mile of disinflation," Madhavi
Arora, lead economist at brokerage Emkay Global, said.
The odds of an interest rate cut in June have eased below
60% from around 70% a week earlier, according to the CME
FedWatch tool.
"That will also mean a shallower rate cut cycle. This will
soon spill over to emerging market central banks, including the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI)," Arora added.
The RBI has kept its interest rate steady at 6.5% during the
past six policy meetings and indicated it would consider rate
cuts only when retail inflation eases closer to the 4% target on
a sustainable basis.
U.S. Treasury yields have stayed elevated, reflecting
concerns over a delayed start to the rate-cutting cycle. The
10-year yield hovered around the 4.30% level.
Meanwhile, the persistent rise in oil prices is detrimental
to Indian bonds as elevated commodity prices could translate
into higher domestic retail inflation.
The benchmark Brent crude contract exceeded the $87 per
barrel mark, rising nearly 7% in the past five sessions through
Tuesday.
The RBI will also conduct state debt sale worth 240 billion
rupees on Thursday.