MUMBAI, June 19 (Reuters) - Indian government bond
yields are likely to be little changed in opening deals on
Thursday, as oil prices were steady, while the U.S. Federal
Reserve policy decision did little to affect sentiment.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond is
expected to move between 6.26% and 6.29%, a trader at a private
bank said, compared with the previous close of 6.2615%. The
five-year 6.75% 2029 bond ended at 5.9434% on
Wednesday.
"The Fed decision turned out to be a sort of non-event and
even oil did not move much yesterday, so overall we should see a
sideway trend in bonds," the trader said.
Apart from oil, the market will also eye demand at the debt
auction and the minutes of the Reserve Bank of India's latest
monetary policy meeting, both due on Friday, the trader added.
The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday and
maintained expectations for two rate cuts this year, but a
rising minority also expects no rate cuts at all.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against putting too much
weight on rate cuts and said he expects "meaningful" inflation
ahead.
The 10-year U.S. yield stayed around 4.40%, while the
benchmark Brent crude remained around $76 per barrel.
Brent has gained over 10% in the last five sessions on
worries that the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt supplies.
India imports a bulk of its crude oil needs and higher
prices could impact the nation's inflation outlook.
Earlier this month, the RBI reduced its inflation forecast
for the current year to 3.7%, while cutting its key lending rate
by a steeper-than-expected 50 basis points.
It, however, reverted to a "neutral" stance from
"accommodative", prompting analysts to forecast the end of the
easing cycle.
RATES
Indian overnight index swap (OIS) rates are expected to be
range-bound.
The one-year OIS rate was at 5.48%, while
the two-year OIS rate was at 5.46%. The liquid
five-year ended at 5.68%.
KEY INDICATORS:
** Brent crude futures fell 0.4% to $76.40 per barrel
after rising 0.3% in the previous session
** Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.3950%; two-year
yield at 3.9410%