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INDIA BONDS-India bond yields seen little changed; traders eye fresh directional cues
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INDIA BONDS-India bond yields seen little changed; traders eye fresh directional cues
Jun 18, 2025 8:12 PM

MUMBAI, June 19 (Reuters) - Indian government bond

yields are likely to be little changed in opening deals on

Thursday, as oil prices were steady, while the U.S. Federal

Reserve policy decision did little to affect sentiment.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond is

expected to move between 6.26% and 6.29%, a trader at a private

bank said, compared with the previous close of 6.2615%. The

five-year 6.75% 2029 bond ended at 5.9434% on

Wednesday.

"The Fed decision turned out to be a sort of non-event and

even oil did not move much yesterday, so overall we should see a

sideway trend in bonds," the trader said.

Apart from oil, the market will also eye demand at the debt

auction and the minutes of the Reserve Bank of India's latest

monetary policy meeting, both due on Friday, the trader added.

The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday and

maintained expectations for two rate cuts this year, but a

rising minority also expects no rate cuts at all.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against putting too much

weight on rate cuts and said he expects "meaningful" inflation

ahead.

The 10-year U.S. yield stayed around 4.40%, while the

benchmark Brent crude remained around $76 per barrel.

Brent has gained over 10% in the last five sessions on

worries that the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt supplies.

India imports a bulk of its crude oil needs and higher

prices could impact the nation's inflation outlook.

Earlier this month, the RBI reduced its inflation forecast

for the current year to 3.7%, while cutting its key lending rate

by a steeper-than-expected 50 basis points.

It, however, reverted to a "neutral" stance from

"accommodative", prompting analysts to forecast the end of the

easing cycle.

RATES

Indian overnight index swap (OIS) rates are expected to be

range-bound.

The one-year OIS rate was at 5.48%, while

the two-year OIS rate was at 5.46%. The liquid

five-year ended at 5.68%.

KEY INDICATORS:

** Brent crude futures fell 0.4% to $76.40 per barrel

after rising 0.3% in the previous session

** Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.3950%; two-year

yield at 3.9410%

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