MUMBAI, June 13 (Reuters) - Indian government bond
yields declined on Thursday, as U.S. Treasury prices jumped
after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation print boosted bets of
rate cuts, despite the Federal Reserve projecting only one cut
this year.
India's benchmark 10-year yield ended at
6.9872%, following its previous close of 7.0121%.
U.S. yields dropped and stayed around the 4.30% level as
inflation data showed consumer prices were unchanged
month-on-month in May, following a 0.3% increase in April and
below the 0.1% estimate.
For the 12 months through May, U.S. inflation advanced 3.3%
versus 3.4% in April and a similar market expectation.
The Fed said the 2% inflation goal was likely to be achieved
at a slower pace than previously expected and slashed its
forecast to only one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2024, down from
three cuts forecast in March.
The futures markets, however, ignored the Fed's hawkish
guidance, and are currently pricing in 44 bps of cuts in 2024,
with the odds for such an action in September rising to 61% from
53%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
"Given current conditions, the earliest the Fed rate cut
cycle could start from is September. The Fed will have three
more CPI prints by the September policy to assess the durability
of the disinflation process. The April and May CPI prints have
shown some moderation," said Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at
IDFC First Bank.
Back home, India's retail inflation rate eased slightly in
May to 4.75% from 4.83% in April, lower than the 4.89% forecast
in a Reuters poll.
Still, investor uncertainty likely curbed the fall in Indian
bond yields.
Investors are likely to wait for clarity on India's fiscal
consolidation path in the forthcoming government budget before
propelling the next leg of a bond market rally, Aditya Bagree,
head of markets at Citi India.
(Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Janane Venkatraman
)