* Reclassification to frontier status possible if no
progress by November 2026 review, MSCI ( MSCI ) says
* MSCI ( MSCI ) acknowledges recent transparency reforms from Jakarta
* Jakarta stock index down near 30% this year,
worst-performing major market globally
* MSCI ( MSCI ) tone constructive but conditional, investor says
(Adds comments from Indonesia's financial regulator in
paragraphs 10-11)
By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, June 23 (Reuters) - Indonesia held on to its
emerging markets status, for now, as global index provider MSCI ( MSCI )
on Tuesday extended its review to November to assess the slate
of measures rolled out by Jakarta, leaving the market facing
prolonged uncertainty.
Indonesian assets have been hammered since January, when
MSCI ( MSCI ) froze the country's stocks in its indexes and raised the
prospect of a downgrade to frontier status, pointing to opaque
ownership, weak free-float visibility and unreliable trading
data.
Tuesday's extension could spur a brief relief rally, though
with most of the worries over Indonesia lingering, sentiment
will likely remain subdued on a market that has turned from
darling to deadweight.
Since January, Indonesia has announced measures, including
moves to raise free-float levels, to help allay some of those
concerns. On Tuesday, MSCI ( MSCI ) acknowledged transparency reforms.
"While these announcements represent a step in the right
direction, what matters for international institutional
investors is the consistent implementation and sustained effect
of these measures across the market," MSCI ( MSCI ) said in a statement.
The global index provider said in its 2026 market
classification review that it would consider options such as a
consultation on a downgrade to frontier status if sufficient
progress was not evident by the time of the November review.
Mohit Mirpuri, a fund manager at SGMC Capital in Singapore,
said the MSCI ( MSCI ) extension is a better outcome than many had
feared, noting the index compiler stopped short of launching a
frontier market consultation and explicitly acknowledged the
reforms.
"The tone was constructive but clearly conditional," he
said. "I think the immediate downgrade risk has been deferred
rather than eliminated. The MSCI ( MSCI ) overhang likely remains ...
which may keep some foreign investors cautious."
MSCI ( MSCI ) in April had extended its review of Indonesian markets
to June and in May cut several companies, most of which were
tied to tycoons, from its indexes.
Indonesia's financial regulator said the MSCI ( MSCI ) announcement
would serve as momentum to strengthen and accelerate the capital
market reform agendas initiated since January.
The regulator said it will continue to communicate and
engage with global index providers as well as investors, to
"ensure that the reforms that have been and are currently being
rolled out can be comprehensively understood by the global
investment community."
WALL OF WORRIES FOR INDONESIA
Investor unease has been growing over President Prabowo
Subianto's spending agenda, which has supported initiatives such
as free meals to millions of people but has also contributed to
the rupiah sliding to record lows, leaving the broader
investment backdrop for the $1.4 trillion economy looking
fragile.
Indonesia has been besieged by setbacks this year, with
credit-rating firms Moody's and Fitch cutting their debt rating
outlooks for Indonesia to negative earlier this year, citing
reduced policymaking credibility.
The benchmark Jakarta stock index has dropped nearly
30% this year, making it the world's worst-performing stock
market, with foreign investors net selling $3.89 billion worth
of Indonesian equities in 2026.
MSCI ( MSCI ) said last week there were signs of coordinated trading
distorting price formation, as well as inadequate provision of
detailed market information in English.
A downgrade would be devastating to Indonesia, putting it on
par with frontier markets such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and
Pakistan. It could also trigger as much as $13 billion in
outflows from Indonesian equities, Goldman Sachs has estimated,
at a time when the combined market value of Indonesian equities
has already shrunk to $601 billion from more than $900 billion
in January.
MSCI ( MSCI ) said the transparency issues relate directly to the
information flow and market infrastructure pillars of its market
accessibility framework, with participants raising "profound
investability concern" stemming from them.
The index provider added it would continue to assess the
scope, consistency and sustained effectiveness of the reforms
from Jakarta in the context of free-float determination and
broader investability assessments.
"Our base case remains that Indonesia retains Emerging
Market status," SGMC Capital's Mirpuri said. "But the next few
months will be about execution, credibility and evidence rather
than further policy announcements."