TOKYO, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Japan's volatile financial
markets must now contend with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi
firmly in the driver's seat after her decisive victory on
Sunday, which hands her an electoral mandate to reflate the
economy.
The question for investors is whether Takaichi's electoral
momentum will prompt her to expand her stimulus ambitions or if
it lends her the political leeway to proceed more cautiously.
Since she began her rise to become the nation's first female
premier in October, the "Takaichi trade" has pushed domestic
shares to record highs while causing a precipitous selloff in
Japanese government bonds and the yen.
Voters braved heavy snowfalls in Tokyo and other parts of
Japan to deliver what exit polls indicated to be the most
decisive win for Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party since 1996.
"The stock market is a true believer in Takaichi, so the big
win is going to be good news for equities when the markets open
on Monday," said Chris Scicluna, the head of research at Daiwa
Capital Markets Europe.
Takaichi, a devotee of the "Abenomics" stimulus policies of
the late premier Shinzo Abe, has pledged a proactive fiscal
policy funded largely through bond issuance.
She came to office at a low point in power and popularity
for her Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled Japan for most
of the post-World War Two period, forcing her to bargain with
opposition parties with even more liberal fiscal platforms.
"The administration's foundation will become much more
stable, making it easier for expectations to build around
advancing economic policy," said Kota Suzuki, a strategist at
Nomura Asset Management. "Because there will no longer be a need
to actively seek the opposition's cooperation, there will be
less pressure for giveaway-style fiscal expansion."
With polls already indicating a decisive LDP win, Japan's
benchmark Nikkei 225 Index set an all-time high of
54,782.83 on Tuesday. Big winners of late include sectors like
defence, artificial intelligence and chips that have been
singled out by Takaichi for targeted investment.
But prospects for more government outlays have unsettled
investors already concerned about Japan's debt burden, the
largest in the developed world. Those worries came to a head on
January 20, when rates across the JGB yield curve shot to
multi-decade or even record highs after Takaichi called for the
snap election and embraced suspending the sales tax on food.
The yen has also been punished, losing about 6% against the
dollar since Takaichi's selection as prime minister in October
and plumbing record lows against the euro and Swiss franc. Only
threats of joint currency market intervention with the United
States have arrested the yen's slide.
The size of Takaichi's victory means "the Takaichi trade
will revive, which means JGB yields will be under upward
pressure," said Naoya Hasegawa, the chief bond strategist at
Okasan Securities. "The move of the yen, stocks and bond yields
will affect each other. If the yen falls rapidly, yields will
tend to rise."
While JGB yields remain elevated, some measure of calm has
returned to the market in the past couple of weeks, as
confidence grew that an emboldened Takaichi would keep her
pledge of "responsible" stimulus. The past four debt auctions
have seen resilient demand, and 30-year JGB yields have fallen
31.5 basis points since their record high of 3.88% on January
20.
"We assume Takaichi will continue to strike a delicate
balance between proactive fiscal policy and fiscal discipline,"
said Shigeto Nagai of Oxford Economics in Tokyo.
"Although we think she's determined to make the best use of
the fiscal space generated by inflation-boosted tax revenue, we
also believe she seriously worries about a further rise in JGB
yields," he added.