Lok Sabha elections have taken centre stage, with 91 out of 543 constituencies going to the polls in the first phase on April 11.
NSE
A look at the election manifestos of major parties reveals the usual important issues like farmer welfare, job creation, infrastructure build-out.
But according to CLSA, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s manifesto looks more pragmatic compared to that of the Indian National Congress.
The BJP on Monday released its manifesto, Sankalp Patra, for the Lok Sabha Elections 2019, nearly a week after the Congress released its manifesto for the general elections.
From doubling farmer income to housing for all by 2022, the manifesto provides a status report on what the government has done in the past five years and its past governance track record, with plans and earmarked investments and targets.
Congress, meanwhile, announced a $52 billion basic income plan if it is voted to power in 2019. The plan promises income support of as much as Rs 72,000 a year to 50 million families.
According to Motilal Oswal, BJP manifesto does not mention any specific big bang dole-outs/freebies scheme and therefore, to that extent, should soothe the nerves of market participants.
"Speculation about BJP responding to Congress’ NYAY scheme of money transfer to the 20 percent poorest households had raised concerns of medium term fiscal consolidation path," it said in a report.
CLSA was also of the same view. "Despite the Congress’s announcement of a large new US$52 billion social spending program, which runs the risk of creating fiscal issues and possible tax increases, the BJP has been much more moderate in its poll promises," wrote analysts at CLSA in a research note.
According to CLSA, the BJP avoided the temptation to promise large election sops.
"This is not a surprise, given PM Modi’s known stance on fiscal stability and inflation. Also, it’s difficult for an incumbent to announce sweeping macro-economic policy changes for obvious reasons," said CLSA.
However, it added that the risk of competitive populism after the elections cannot be ruled out and would be dependent on the strength of the election mandate.
Citi believes that the BJP seems to have refrained from competitive populism as the manifesto promises continuity and expansion on existing NDA policies
The manifesto mainly talks about expanding and continuing NDA’s policies, as per Citi.
Motilal Oswal also added that: "In keeping with the current underlying campaign thrust of BJP and given the recent context of India Pakistan conflict post-Pulwama terror attack, the manifesto gives prominence to National Security. Focus on strengthening armed forces, modernization of police forces, coastal safety, reinforcing border security and self-reliance in defense sectors are key areas of focus for BJP."
With regards to the Congress manifesto, CLSA said that it appears more ambitious on social schemes.
"The manifesto has pledged to bring the fiscal deficit down to 3 percent by FY21, the massive 52bn cash dole-out proposal to poorest 20 percent families can be a drain on the fiscal and may warrant some tax increases," it added.
First Published:Apr 9, 2019 11:44 AM IST