Mark Matthews of Bank Julius Baer & Co said on Thursday that he expects a mild recession, adding that a 20 percent decline in S&P is what the market usually sees in a mild recession.

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“Even if we get a recession, it will be a mild one because the labour market is still so strong, there are still 1.7 jobs available for every one unemployed person looking for work. And so 20 percent decline in the S&P is really about what you usually see when you have mild recessions.”

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, he said rising China bond yields will be a signal for good times. However, the dollar index will see a slide in the coming months.

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“I cannot really say what causes the dollar to go down this time. But my hunch is that history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme and it will be going down in the months ahead,” said Matthews.

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India is the big bet for the next 5 years from Bank Julius Baer & Co, he said.

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