*
Muted initial market reaction gives way to sharper moves
*
Small cap stocks up sharply
*
Bond yields spike
(Updates comments, details in paragraphs 4-10; updates prices
throughout)
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Suzanne McGee and Carolina Mandl
NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) -
A muted market reaction following the Federal Reserve's
first rate cut in four years is giving way to a surge in U.S.
stocks as uncertainty eased and investors digested the
implications of an easing monetary policy trajectory.
The S&P 500 was up 1.3% on Thursday, hitting a fresh
intraday high, a sharp contrast to the day before, when the
benchmark index closed down 0.3% following
a 50-basis point rate cut
from the Fed. Treasury yields, which move inversely to bond
prices, continued to rise.
The Fed meeting had been seen as a potentially pivotal event
for markets, with rates futures gyrating hours before the event
as traders recalibrated bets on how big the initial rate cut
would be.
With the first rate cut now in the books and a better
idea of the Fed's monetary policy trajectory going forward,
investors can turn their focus to factors such as corporate
earnings growth, which has been solid this year, said Michael
Purves, CEO of Tallbacken Capital Advisors.
"If stocks are rallying, it's more about the fact that
the Fed meeting is behind us," Purves said.
At the same time, investors may also be factoring in
better chances of an economic soft landing, where the Fed is
able to cool inflation without badly hurting growth, now that
monetary policy is less restrictive, said Ed Yardeni, founder of
Yardeni Research.
"Now that the Fed is stimulating the economy, the
hard-landing crowd should disperse," Yardeni wrote in a Thursday
morning report.
Lower rates are likely to benefit smaller, highly leveraged
companies that rely on cheaper debt as well as economically
sensitive-value stocks, Yardeni said. The rally that has pushed
the S&P 500 up 18.5% this year will likely broaden from the
cluster of big tech names that have led the gains, he added.
The small-cap focused Russell 2000 index was up 1.4%
on Thursday morning after finishing about flat in the previous
session.
Historically, equities tend to respond well to falling
rates, as long as a recession is avoided, according to data from
Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory
Services, which showed the S&P 500 higher a year after the first
cut in four out of six Fed easing cycles since 1989.
That doesn't exclude the possibility of volatility in the
shorter term, however, as the Fed decision ripples through
markets.
"The coming hours could prove dangerous ... with traders
exposed to sudden riptides as rate expectations are reinforced
in other economies," said Karl Schamotta, chief market
strategist at payments company Corpay ( CPAY ), commenting on
foreign-exchange markets.
The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies
on Thursday, hovering near its lowest level in about a year.
Investors were also looking ahead to Friday, when the
quarterly expiration of stock options, stock index options and
futures - totaling some $5.1 trillion in notional terms,
according to SpotGamma - ramps up the risk for volatility in
equities as traders adjust their positions.
MUTED REACTION
Stock options had priced in a roughly 1.1% swing, up or
down, for the S&P 500 on Wednesday, according to options
analytics service ORATS. But by the close of trading on
Wednesday, the index had snapped a seven-day winning streak to
finish down 0.29%, reversing earlier gains.
One reason for the muted market reaction on a close-to-close
basis has to do with how asset prices moved in the days leading
up to the Fed decision, said Sonu Varghese, global macro
strategist at Carson Group.
Through Tuesday, the Russell 2000 was up 5% over the
previous five sessions and the dollar had slipped 0.7%, on
expectations for the start of the Fed's long-awaited
rate-cutting cycle.
"It's a very silly cliche, 'buy the rumor, sell the news',
but that's kind of what happened," said Matt Diczok, head of
fixed income strategy at Merrill and Bank of America Private
Bank.
Treasury yields, which rise when prices fall, kept rising on
Thursday with benchmark 10-year yields up to 3.75% and two-year
yields rising to 3.62%.
The move was exacerbated by weekly jobs data showing
continued strength in the labor market.
With the Fed meeting in the rear view mirror, "attention
will once again shift toward the incoming data to further refine
the macro narrative," BMO Capital Markets rates strategists said
in a note.