The market ended Thursday with minor gains as the RBI kept policy rates unchanged. However, the Nifty and Sensex saw their biggest two-week gain in the last eight months.

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If we take the close from March 28 - that is five sessions, the Nifty is up four percent, the Bank Nifty is up roughly about four percent, the Smallcap Index is up six percent in just five trading sessions, the Midcap Index is exactly half of that about three percent so it has been a decent move.

Even before the entire SVB and bank crisis, people had been waiting for this, ‘tactical rally’. Now we are finally at the point where the markets have broken out, not entirely from the big range, the downward sloping range, but this is indeed looking much better.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently paused its monetary policy stance, but the central bank sounded hawkish in its commentary. This move indicates that the RBI may tighten its monetary policy soon to curb inflation. This news has been well-received by the market as it reflects the RBI's commitment to maintain price stability.

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Meanwhile, the US economic data has started to come in soft, which has raised concerns about the pace of recovery in the world's largest economy. The US jobs report, which is due soon, is expected to be the next key trigger for the market. The report is likely to provide clarity on the labor market's health and reinforce whether the Federal Reserve is done with its monetary tightening cycle or not.

The final big data point is the jobs report, which is on Friday evening, either it will reinforce these dovish expectations or it will kind of throw up a surprise either way, it is going to be important to track.

For Nifty, the level of 17,615 is a crucial 38 percent retracement of the recent fall. For a 50 percent retracement of the same fall, the level to watch out for is 17,858. Similarly, for Bank Nifty, the first resistance level is at 41,200. A 50 percent retracement of the recent fall can be expected at the level of 41,382.

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