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Stock futures, dollar, yields point toward bets on Trump

win

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Election results could impact U.S. tax, trade policy

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Battleground states yet to be called

(Updates to reflect latest results, investor comments)

By Suzanne McGee, Carolina Mandl and Lananh Nguyen

NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Global investors were

increasingly pricing in a win late on Tuesday for Republican

Donald Trump, as the former president took a lead in U.S.

presidential elections, with some battleground states yet to

post results.

U.S. stock futures and the dollar pushed higher while

Treasury yields climbed and bitcoin rose -- all flagged by

analysts and investors as trades that favor a Trump win over

Democrat Kamala Harris.

"Our county by county analysis in key states suggests that

Harris is lagging vs 2020, and on this basis it is logical that

the market is starting to price a Trump win, as seen in bonds,

and the dollar," said Jens Nordvig, CEO at analytical firm

Exante.

The results so far underscore how one of the most unusual -

and tightest - presidential elections in modern U.S. history

could have far-reaching implications for tax and trade policy,

as well as U.S. institutions.

The results affect assets globally and determine the outlook

for U.S. debt, the strength of the dollar and a host of

industries that make up the backbone of Corporate America.

Leading into Tuesday, polls showed a dead heat between the

former president and the current vice president. But by 11 pm

ET, Trump had won 211 Electoral College votes compared with 145

for Harris, with a third of the vote counted.

Republicans also won control of the U.S. Senate, ensuring

they will dominate at least one chamber of Congress next year.

GROWING CONFIDENCE

Despite the uncertainty, popular election betting platforms

leaned heavily in Trump's favor, while trades in assets whose

prices could be influenced by Trump's pledges to raise tariffs,

cut taxes and slash regulations showed growing bets on a Trump

victory on Tuesday evening.

"The consequence is a higher path of rates," said Nick

Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset

Management in Singapore. He was buying bank shares in

anticipation that higher yields and stronger growth would

benefit their earnings.

Bank stocks rose 4.4% in Tokyo and outperformed

the market in Australia.

Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group ( DJT ) surged

10% in extended trade after a volatile day session, while the

Mexican peso, which could be hit by tariffs, sank to a

two-year low, about 3% weaker than its closing price from the

previous session. The euro also fell, fueled by worries that a

Trump presidency could mean Europe faces trade tariffs and is

forced to pay more for its defence.

Bitcoin surged to a record high in Asia trade, betting on a

softer line on cryptocurrency regulation.

"Markets are growing confident that the election result will

be called and that a 'red sweep' of Congress is possible," said

Ben Emons, founder of Fedwatch Advisors in Washington.

Several investors said the results so far suggested markets

would have clarity faster than in 2020, when Joe Biden was

announced the victor some four days after election night.

"That's what markets have been most worried about, that

there would be a long, drawn-out fight over who won," said Jamie

Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.

'VOLATILE NIGHT'

Elsewhere on Wall Street, some bankers, investors and

analysts said they were waiting out the count - in some cases

anxiously - with friends and family.

Alex Jaros, a former investment banker who now works in

private credit in New York, was at a watch party at a bar

organized by the New York Young Republican Club.

"It's looking very positive right now," even though the

election has not been called conclusively, Jaros said.

The group sold 500 tickets for the packed event, which had a

"busy, excited" atmosphere, Jaros said in an interview, as

attendees chanted "U-S-A" in the background.

Joe McCann, CEO of Asymmetric, a macro hedge fund that

trades primarily in cryptocurrencies, said he has been tracking

election news on several TV screens and monitoring market

movements in his 50th floor Miami penthouse.

"We have not left this room all day," he said. "We are

expecting a volatile night."