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Oil Prices Fall as Israel's Response to Iran's Attack Fails to Materialize and China Declines to Add Further Stimulus
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Oil Prices Fall as Israel's Response to Iran's Attack Fails to Materialize and China Declines to Add Further Stimulus
Oct 10, 2024 11:59 PM

09:14 AM EDT, 10/08/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices dropped on Tuesday for the first time in six sessions as traders await Israel's response to Iran's Oct.1 missile attack and China avoids new stimulus measures to revive a flagging economy.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for November delivery was last seen down US$1.40 to US$75.74 per barrel, while December Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down US$1.43 to US$79.50.

Oil gained 13% in the five sessions after Iran's attack as traders worried Israel response would hit at Iran's oil infrastructure, potentially cutting into the country's 1.7-million barrels per day of exports. Fears abound also that a wider war in the oil-rich Persian Gulf is on the horizon and could threaten nearly a third of global oil output. However the risk premium may be fading given the delay in Israel's response.

"The geopolitical risk premium has an obscure and unforeseeable expiry date," PVM Oil Associates noted. "When that point arrives and is not replaced by genuine and supportive fundamental factors, in the case of the Middle East conflict by a palpable supply shortage, the move higher will not be sustainable. And the longer it takes, the faster the price increase will slow and even reverse."

Oil's fundamentals remain weak as demand remains light during the autumn shoulder season even as OPEC+ begins adding 180,000 bpd of supply monthly for a year beginning in December to unwind 2.2-million bpd of production cuts.

Demand from China, the No.1 importer, remains light as the country's economy struggles with a debt crisis in its real-estate sector, weak consumer spending and high youth unemployment. Bloomberg News on Tuesday reported that China's economic planning agency said it is confident it can meet its goal of 5% growth in its gross domestic product this year. It declined to offer further stimulus measures even as major investment banks press for up to three-trillion yuan of additional spending.

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