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Oil Prices Rise as OPEC+ is Expected to Roll Voluntary Production Cuts into the Third Quarter
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Oil Prices Rise as OPEC+ is Expected to Roll Voluntary Production Cuts into the Third Quarter
May 29, 2024 6:32 AM

09:05 AM EDT, 05/29/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices rose early on Wednesday, climbing for a third session on expectations OPEC+ will roll current production cuts into the high-demand third quarter, squeezing global inventories.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up US$0.51 to US$80.34 per barrel, while July Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up US$0.52 to US$84.74.

OPEC+ will meet virtually on the weekend to decide on whether to extend voluntary quota cuts slated to expire at month's end into the third quarter, with the cartel widely expected to roll the cuts forward.

"We see no appetite at this juncture to add more barrels to the market and trigger another price move to the downside ... Given how hard it will be to thread the needle on crude balances this year alone, adding back the 1 mb/d Saudi voluntary cut would more than offset seasonal third quarter draws, resulting in a 700 kb/d build through the rest of the year," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, noted.

The meeting comes as the U.S. summer driving season is underway, raising demand for gasoline and supporting prices, though a strong dollar supported by high interest rates could offset demand gains. The market is awaiting further U.S. inflation data coming on Friday that is likely to influence the Federal Reserve's rate policy.

"Interest rate concerns will most plausibly act as a break on further attempt to send oil prices meaningfully higher in the immediate future. No doubt the April US personal consumption expenditure index, a major Fed proxy for inflation, due out on Friday will have a profound impact on rate views and on the dollar. Both the core and headlines readings are expected to come in unchanged from March at 2.8% and 2.7%, respectively. There is a growing belief that the ECB and maybe the BoE will cut interest rates before the Fed, supporting the dollar, and causing headwinds for oil's advance," PVM Oil Associates said in a Tuesday note.

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