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Oil Prices Surge Again as Traders Discount IEA Reserves Release While Iran Steps Up Its Attacks on Shipping
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Oil Prices Surge Again as Traders Discount IEA Reserves Release While Iran Steps Up Its Attacks on Shipping
Mar 12, 2026 6:17 AM

08:56 AM EDT, 03/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices surged again early Thursday as traders shrugged at the largest-ever release of strategic reserves by International Energy Agency (IEA) members as Iran stepped up attacks on tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf with the United States unable to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the second week of its war on Iran.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for April delivery was last seen up $5.47 to US$92.72 per barrel, while May Brent crude was up $6.07 to US$98.05 after earlier touching US$101.59.

The rise comes as Iran moved to attack ships and ports in the Persian Gulf, continuing to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for 20% of global oil exports, in order to pressure prices amid continuing attacks from the U.S. and Israel. Reuters reported strikes on six ships in the Gulf, using explosive-laden boats to attack two tankers and projectiles for four other ships, as the U.S. Navy declines to escort shipping through the Strait even while U.S. President Trump is encouraging ships to run through to the Indian Ocean despite the threat from Iranian drones and missiles.

"There are no indications yet that the US Navy is poised to commence an operation to ensure freedom of navigation through the critical waterway...Meanwhile, the risk to tankers and ports appears to be rising by the day," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.

As yet there is no indication when the war will end, even as Trump told Axios there are few targets in Iran left to attack. But Israel's defense minister said there is no time limit on the conflict.

The IEA on Wednesday looked to assuage markets as its members agreed to release 400-million barrels of strategic reserves to ease prices, but the measure was quickly seen as inadequate to replace the loss of Persian Gulf supply.

"400 million barrels sounds huge. But the key issue is not the total volume (it is the daily release rate). The maximum sustainable release rate is roughly 2 million barrels per day, meaning a 400-million-barrel release would take around 200 days to fully hit the market. So even though the headline number looks impressive, the short-term offset is limited. If a major disruption removes 15-18 million bl/d from the market, roughly the scale tied to Hormuz flows, then a 2 million bl/d emergency release barely scratches the surface," Ole Hvalbye, a commodities strategist at SEB Research, noted.

In its monthly Oil Market Report released on Thursday, the IEA said the war is creating the largest-ever disruption in the history of the global oil market, though higher production from producers outside of the Persian Gulf, weakening economies and a one-million barrel per day drop in demand due to the disruption to aviation caused by the war, are somewhat offsetting the loss of Gulf supply.

"Higher oil prices and a deteriorating economic outlook have begun to erode demand across the product spectrum. In this context, we have reduced the forecast for global oil demand growth in March and April by more than 1 mb/d on average -- and for 2026 as a whole by 210 kb/d to 640 kb/d," IEA said.

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