LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices, which hit a

six-month high on Friday, are expected to rise on Monday after

Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend, analysts said, but

further gains may depend on how Israel chooses to respond.

Iran launched explosive drones and missiles at Israel late

on Saturday in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its

consulate in Syria on April 1, a first direct attack on Israeli

territory that has stoked fears of a wider regional conflict.

Concern that Iran would respond to the strike on its embassy

compound in Damascus supported oil last week and helped send

global benchmark Brent crude on Friday to $92.18 a barrel, the

highest since October.

Brent settled that day up 71 cents at $90.45, while U.S.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 64 cents to

$85.66. Trading is closed on Sunday.

"It is only reasonable to expect stronger prices when

trading resumes," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. "Having

said that, there has been no impact on production so far and

Iran has said that 'the matter can be deemed concluded'.

"However fierce and painful the initial market reaction will

be, the rally could prove to be short-lived unless supply from

the region is materially disrupted."

Leaders of the Group of Seven major economies condemned

Iran's attack and reaffirmed the G7's commitment to Israel's

security during a meeting on Sunday regarding the development,

the White House said in a post on X.

The G7 leaders discussed sanctions against Iran, a senior

U.S. administration official said.

"There will probably be a knee-jerk jump in oil and

potentially natural gas prices when markets open in Asian

trading hours, although crude was already pricing in a fair

amount of geopolitical risk in anticipation of an Iranian

strike," said Amrita Sen, co-founder of consultancy Energy

Aspects.

"If the crisis does not escalate to a point that creates

supply disruptions, then there will be downside risk over time,

but only once it becomes clear Israel has chosen a measured

response," she said.

IRAN OIL EXPORTS IN VIEW

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said oil might spike at the

opening and how long any gains last would depend on Israel's

response. Whether or not the G7 decides to target Iranian crude

oil exports is also a factor, he added.

Iran has steeply raised oil exports - its main source of

revenue - under the Joe Biden administration. Exports were

severely reduced under Biden's predecessor Donald Trump, who

faces Biden in a presidential election rematch in November.

The Biden administration has argued it is not encouraging

Iran to raise exports and is enforcing sanctions.

Lower Iranian exports would lead to a further rise in oil

prices and the cost of gasoline in the United States, a

politically sensitive subject ahead of the elections.

Another factor to watch will be any impact on shipping

through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the

volume of the world's total oil consumption passes daily.

The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard's navy said on

Tuesday Tehran could close the strait if deemed necessary, and

earlier on Saturday Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported

a Guards helicopter had boarded and taken into Iranian waters a

vessel, the Portuguese-flagged MSC Aries.

"Crude prices already included a risk premium, and the

extent to which it will widen further almost exclusively depends

on developments near Iran around the Strait of Hormuz," said Ole

Hansen at Saxo Bank.

In comments that he said might be going against the stream,

Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, said he thought the

Iranian attack was slightly bearish for crude.

"The market expected a pathway to World War III but Iran

saying it considers its retaliation to be over would lower the

risk of a bigger regional conflagration," he said.