NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. bond giant PIMCO said
on Wednesday it is increasing its bond exposure in developed
markets outside the United States as inflation could complicate
the shift of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
The $1.9 trillion asset manager expects an easing in central
bank policies to bolster bonds in markets such as Australia,
Canada, the United Kingdom and the euro zone, but is underweight
U.S. fixed income as economic growth in America may continue to
be accompanied by rising price pressures.
"The global economic and market outlook suggests diverging
paths among regions and sectors," portfolio managers Erin Browne
and Emmanuel Sharef wrote in an asset allocation outlook report.
"In fixed income markets, we're adding to our investments in
select countries outside the U.S. where easier monetary policy
this year is likely to boost bonds," they said.
U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, have
surged for much of this year as strong economic and inflation
data have defied market assumptions that the Federal Reserve
would soon shift to a less restrictive monetary stance.
Even though Treasuries have rallied this month, benchmark
10-year yields are still up over 60 basis points since the
beginning of the year. Bets on the path of the Fed's policy rate
in futures markets have gone from pricing in over 150 basis
points of cuts in early January to cuts of 44 basis points as of
Wednesday.
PIMCO is overall bullish on corporate debt markets,
particularly securitized credit, but is underweight high-yield
bonds as defaults could rise. It favors U.S. equities to other
markets given continued signs of economic strength.
Still, the prospect of U.S. interest rates remaining high
for longer than previously expected could eventually pressure
areas of the economy that are vulnerable to higher borrowing
costs, such as commercial real estate, private credit and
regional banks, said PIMCO.
"This means that although the factors that have contributed
to U.S. economic resilience appear durable, we can't rule out
the risk of recession," it said.