Nov 7 (Reuters) - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury
yields has less to do with a concern in the bond market over
inflation risks arising from an aggressive fiscal agenda from
President-elect Donald Trump than they do about expectations for
stronger growth ahead, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said
on Thursday, but central bank officials will keep a close eye
for any change in that dynamic.
In the weeks between the Fed's first interest rate cut in
September and a second one announced on Thursday, yields have
risen to their highest levels since mid-summer - an unusual
behavior given the Fed is now lowering rates and expects to
continue doing so into next year.
Yields on 2-year Treasury notes, which ordinarily track Fed
policy expectations, have climbed by more than 65 basis points
since the central bank's 50-basis-point rate cut on Sept. 18,
and benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields, influenced more by
growth and inflation expectations, are up by 70 basis points.
Asked at a press conference following Thursday's second cut
of 25 basis points whether he found the bond market's behavior
concerning at all, Powell said "It appears that the moves are
not ... principally about higher inflation expectations."
"They're really about a sense of more likely there is
stronger growth and perhaps less in the way of downside risks,"
Powell said.
The Fed does take financial conditions into account in
policy-making "if they are persistent and they're material,"
Powell said. "But I would say we're not ... at that stage right
now. It's just something that we're watching."
Related measures in the bond market of inflation
expectations have moved higher alongside the yield increase,
however.
The breakeven-inflation yields on 5-year Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities, for instance, have climbed to
their highest in more than six months. They have snapped higher
after finally returning to below 2% - the level of the Fed's
inflation target - during August and September as confidence had
grown that the Fed's rate hikes had tamed inflation.
Powell also said he was not overly concerned - yet - about
that increase.
"We would be concerned if we saw, if you thought we saw,
longer-term inflation expectations anchoring at a higher level,
that's not what we're seeing," he said.