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NEW YORK, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Global equities sold off on
Friday and U.S. Treasury yields were at multi-month lows on
concerns about the economy and downbeat forecasts from Amazon
and Intel, which hit richly-valued technology firms.
The Nasdaq Composite index was recently down 2.8%,
putting it on track to confirm it is in a correction following
worries about pricey Big Tech valuations and as weak employment
numbers aggravated worries of a slowdown.
MICHAEL FARR, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, FARR,
MILLER & WASHINGTON LLC, WASHINGTON, DC
"Markets are having a short-term emotional reaction to
today's economic data. And today's economic data on employment
were weaker and showed a slowdown in hiring and in wage growth.
That has people worried that the Fed has kept rates too high for
too long and in doing they have slowed the economy to the point
where we may be heading towards a recession. Now that's part
one. The part two is that the market for the past several months
have one through a series of all-time highs on great exuberance
and enthusiasm for about 6 or 7 stocks that have going higher
and higher: Nvidia ( NVDA ), Meta, Apple, Microsoft ( MSFT ), etc. With such great
profits and a little bit of fear, profit-taking feels good in
the moment. I don't think this is the end of the world. It's one
month's datum. It has been a trend in a labor market that has
been normalizing. So there are these signs and more data to
suggest that perhaps, if now it seems like short term fear and
a bit of an overreaction by markets."
"Professionals will look at that 3.80% on the 10 year
Treasury. That's a huge move in the 10-year Treasury, we were at
4.25% 10 days ago. That's a big move when you get a 44 or 45
basis point move in the yield of the 10-year Treasury. This is
big. So it certainly looks like there's a fear trade there. That
there is a bit of a flight to safety and also an expectation
that really seems to lock in a fed cut in September."
STEVE ENGLANDER, HEAD, GLOBAL G10 FX RESEARCH AND NORTH
AMERICA MACRO STRATEGY, STANDARD CHARTERED BANK NY BRANCH, NEW
YORK
"There's no silver lining (in the jobs data) anywhere as
far as I can tell. They say they didn't have any kind of
hurricane effects, and if they did, it's not enough to offset
the degree of softness that we're seeing and I think
particularly the unemployment rate is what people are keying off
and historically when you see this kind of move, it suggests
that things are slowing."
"The only question is that most of the other indicators
are not consistent with a really sharp slowdown at the moment. I
mean, everything is soft, but nothing is catastrophically soft.
This set of numbers stands out and obviously they're important
numbers, but I think it will matter if they're supported by
other numbers that come out in the course of the next few days...
to see if the weakness we're seeing here is matched by
everything else"
"In the last couple of days we've seen this real ramping
up of fears that the U.S. economy is slowing down at a
precipitous pace, much more so than any slowing we saw, say, in
the first half of the year, and any slowing that's embedded in
the Fed forecasts and most of the market forecasts."
"Some of the bond market moves - the lower bond market
yields is the path of least resistance because we have both soft
economic data and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Both
of them tend to push bond yields down so I think that's part of
the reason they've moved so sharply. But I'd say in the last
couple of days the market has become really concerned about the
slowing in the U.S. economy and when you look at the yield
curve, they were badly positioned for it. What they were priced
for was for kind of a gradual sort of slowing. And again, we're
not convinced that this is the case, but it's clear that this is
what the market is buying into now - that the pace of slowdown
is going to be sharper."
MICHAEL HARRIS, PRESIDENT, QUEST PARTNERS, NEW YORK
"The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: right price
stability is number one, and number two is focusing on a strong
labor market. They haven't really had to worry about the labor
market for quite a while. Their focus has been 100% on price
stability and inflation. Now that inflation seems to be getting
closer to their target, we're starting to see unemployment get
worse. So this is that sweet spot for rate cuts."
"I don't think we have enough data points yet to tell us
that we're heading for a recession, but I do think that the fear
of a recession is what's driving markets"
ART HOGAN, MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH:
"This isn't a category 3 hurricane, but we are seeing
how markets react to signs that the economy is normalizing after
turning hot in the first half of this year. The path to
normalization is never going to be smooth, and we're just not
used to what 'normalization' feels like. Markets can find
themselves overreacting and investors glom on to anything as an
excuse to take profits."
Tech stocks "led the way up and valuations got
stretched. The good news is that though Nvidia ( NVDA ) may be down 30%
or so from peak to trough, the S&P 500 is only down a fraction
of that amount. There's a rotation as well as a selloff."
YUNG-YU MA, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BMO WEALTH
MANAGEMENT (FROM NOTE)
"A 50 basis point Fed cut in September is clearly
justified as the labor market is now showing clear signs of
softening. The Fed is already falling behind the curve and rates
are overly restrictive - a 50 basis point cut in September would
only be catching-up to, rather than getting ahead of, the
curve."
MICHAEL ARONE, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, STATE STREET
GLOBAL ADVISORS, BOSTON
"There are three thing driving this selloff. August is
notoriously a difficult month for markets, and we went into it
with markets priced for perfection, particularly the Magnificent
7 stocks. Even beating expectations on both the top and bottom
lines wasn't enough this quarter, at these valuations."
"Ultimately, cooler heads will prevail. Corrections are
normal, and this is a garden variety correction. For it to wane
we'll need continued good earnings growth and some economic data
that stops the tide of recession fears. If you can get some of
that, this correction will begin to wane."
"It's important to keep an eye on credit spreads moving
forward. That will be an important barometer for the economy and
how people feel about business risk. They have widened
significantly, but they're not blowing out in the way that they
would if there was something underlying wrong."
MATT ROWE, HEAD OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT AND CROSS ASSET
STRATEGIES, NOMURA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK
"In summary, the jobs report is being treated as an
inflection point. Today, the bad news is being treated as 'bad
news'. Prior to today, bad economic data was treated as a
positive as it increased the likelihood of a rate cut and that
fueled equity beta appreciation."
DAVID WAGNER, HEAD OF EQUITIES & PORTFOLIO MANAGER,
APTUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, OHIO
"It all comes down to growth and what we've witnessed
over the past two days is a continued trend in lower
manufacturing PMIs and a weaker-than-expected jobs report that
could call into question that the lagging effects of monetary
policy are really starting to form and that the Fed may need to
become more reactionary than proactive. "
BRIAN MULBERRY, CLIENT PORTFOLIO MANAGER, ZACKS
INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, CHICAGO
"The only clear definable trend is the softening labor
market leading to a decline in manufacturing leading to weaker
than expected forecasts as Q2 earnings come out...With so much
return attributed to so few stocks, this kind of volatility was
very probable. We have also seen the broader market lower
forward guidance under the high cost of capital and believed it
was only a matter of time before it happened to the Mag 7 stocks
too. This week's earnings have shown that several of them are
not growing as fast as anticipated."
"There is a silver lining here. With yields now pulling
back below 4%, they are travelling down to a much more
competitive level with our long-term Dividend yield of 3.4%.
Remember there is still $5 Trillion in money market accounts
that could be looking for better treatment if the Fed does cut
rates."
MATT LLOYD, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT ADVISORS
ASSET MANAGEMENT
"What's happening today is the realization that there
are undercurrents, whether it's the job market or consumer
sentiment or the election volatility, that could be changing the
reason why the Fed is cutting from inflation to a weakening
economy."
"You're seeing decent earnings but the revenue numbers
are not robust. You've had high retail allocations into equities
and you're getting a shakeout that will churn here for a while."
MARK TRAVIS, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, INTREPID CAPITAL
"This market has been heavily concentrated and people
are realizing now that they did not have the valuation support
to keep buying at those levels."
"People are starting to reassess what their risks are
and whether they are properly positioned."
TOM PLUMB, CHIEF EXECUTIVE AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT PLUMB
FUNDS, MADISON, WI:
"This is an old fashioned correction going on and it's
obviously not something that anyone anticipates the moment it
starts, or even when it's going (to) end, but it's just not that
unusual as we passed the economic torch from the perception of
growth to the perception of needing government intervention with
lower interest rates to stabilize the economy.
"As we go through the fall and we start to see some impact
of the Federal Reserve taking actions (in terms of rate cuts),
we can see a recovery from the 16,600 levels right now to well
over 18,000 by the end of the year."
CLAUDIA SAHM, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT NEW CENTURY ADVISORS AND
FORMER FED ECONOMIST, ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA:
"The Fed, because it hasn't started to normalise yet, has a
lot of room to step in and take some pressure off the economy.
This is not a crisis moment. We still have a strong economy,
it's just slowing in a way that needs to get under control.
Given that (the Fed) has been slow to start their interest rate
reductions, doing some catch up in September could make a lot of
sense. They're going to want to be - appropriately so -
deliberate in their actions.
"We don't need a Federal Reserve that is in crisis mode.
We're not in a crisis, just... action needs to be taken... And I
think that's what will happen. It's exactly how they will
calibrate it will be a question. It's unfortunate that September
feels a long way away right now."
SOLITA MARCELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AMERICAS, UBS
GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT (IN A NOTE):
"US equity markets had been enjoying an unusually smooth
rally until the middle of July. The S&P 500 had gone more than
350 trading sessions without a drop of more than 2%-the best run
in 17 years. A return to higher levels of volatility was to be
expected, especially as the Fed approaches the start of a
cutting cycle and as investors await guidance from top tech
firms on whether their heavy investments in AI are paying off.
Meanwhile, political uncertainty remains elevated, especially
ahead of the US presidential election in November."
CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST AT ONLINE TRADING
PLATFORM IG (IN A NOTE):
"In the space of barely two days markets have gone from
looking forward to a Fed rate cut in a growing economy to
fretting about an impending recession. Today's huge payrolls
miss and the surge in the US unemployment rate has sparked a
fresh flight from risk assets already reeling from some poor
earnings reports and concerns about a wider conflict in the
Middle East. Investors are now hoping for a 50bps rate cut in
September, but worry that even this will be too little, too late
to stave off a US recession."
MICHAEL PURVES, CEO, TALLBACKEN CAPITAL ADVISORS, NY
"This is a good excuse for investors to sell after a huge
year to date rally. Does this weaker jobs number portend a
recession that's coming two quarters from now? There's a lot of
conflicting data."
"Investors should be prepared for some major volatility,
particularly in the big tech stocks. But it will probably be
short-lived. The earnings reports haven't been blockbuster, but
they haven't been bad either."