financetom
Market
financetom
/
Market
/
QUOTES 5-Equities sell off, Nasdaq on track for correction, bond yields sink
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
QUOTES 5-Equities sell off, Nasdaq on track for correction, bond yields sink
Aug 2, 2024 1:41 PM

(Adds quotes)

NEW YORK, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Global equities sold off on

Friday and U.S. Treasury yields were at multi-month lows on

concerns about the economy and downbeat forecasts from Amazon

and Intel, which hit richly-valued technology firms.

The Nasdaq Composite index was recently down 2.8%,

putting it on track to confirm it is in a correction following

worries about pricey Big Tech valuations and as weak employment

numbers aggravated worries of a slowdown.

MICHAEL FARR, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, FARR,

MILLER & WASHINGTON LLC, WASHINGTON, DC

"Markets are having a short-term emotional reaction to

today's economic data. And today's economic data on employment

were weaker and showed a slowdown in hiring and in wage growth.

That has people worried that the Fed has kept rates too high for

too long and in doing they have slowed the economy to the point

where we may be heading towards a recession. Now that's part

one. The part two is that the market for the past several months

have one through a series of all-time highs on great exuberance

and enthusiasm for about 6 or 7 stocks that have going higher

and higher: Nvidia ( NVDA ), Meta, Apple, Microsoft ( MSFT ), etc. With such great

profits and a little bit of fear, profit-taking feels good in

the moment. I don't think this is the end of the world. It's one

month's datum. It has been a trend in a labor market that has

been normalizing. So there are these signs and more data to

suggest that perhaps, if now it seems like short term fear and

a bit of an overreaction by markets."

"Professionals will look at that 3.80% on the 10 year

Treasury. That's a huge move in the 10-year Treasury, we were at

4.25% 10 days ago. That's a big move when you get a 44 or 45

basis point move in the yield of the 10-year Treasury. This is

big. So it certainly looks like there's a fear trade there. That

there is a bit of a flight to safety and also an expectation

that really seems to lock in a fed cut in September."

STEVE ENGLANDER, HEAD, GLOBAL G10 FX RESEARCH AND NORTH

AMERICA MACRO STRATEGY, STANDARD CHARTERED BANK NY BRANCH, NEW

YORK

"There's no silver lining (in the jobs data) anywhere as

far as I can tell. They say they didn't have any kind of

hurricane effects, and if they did, it's not enough to offset

the degree of softness that we're seeing and I think

particularly the unemployment rate is what people are keying off

and historically when you see this kind of move, it suggests

that things are slowing."

"The only question is that most of the other indicators

are not consistent with a really sharp slowdown at the moment. I

mean, everything is soft, but nothing is catastrophically soft.

This set of numbers stands out and obviously they're important

numbers, but I think it will matter if they're supported by

other numbers that come out in the course of the next few days...

to see if the weakness we're seeing here is matched by

everything else"

"In the last couple of days we've seen this real ramping

up of fears that the U.S. economy is slowing down at a

precipitous pace, much more so than any slowing we saw, say, in

the first half of the year, and any slowing that's embedded in

the Fed forecasts and most of the market forecasts."

"Some of the bond market moves - the lower bond market

yields is the path of least resistance because we have both soft

economic data and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Both

of them tend to push bond yields down so I think that's part of

the reason they've moved so sharply. But I'd say in the last

couple of days the market has become really concerned about the

slowing in the U.S. economy and when you look at the yield

curve, they were badly positioned for it. What they were priced

for was for kind of a gradual sort of slowing. And again, we're

not convinced that this is the case, but it's clear that this is

what the market is buying into now - that the pace of slowdown

is going to be sharper."

MICHAEL HARRIS, PRESIDENT, QUEST PARTNERS, NEW YORK

"The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: right price

stability is number one, and number two is focusing on a strong

labor market. They haven't really had to worry about the labor

market for quite a while. Their focus has been 100% on price

stability and inflation. Now that inflation seems to be getting

closer to their target, we're starting to see unemployment get

worse. So this is that sweet spot for rate cuts."

"I don't think we have enough data points yet to tell us

that we're heading for a recession, but I do think that the fear

of a recession is what's driving markets"

ART HOGAN, MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH:

"This isn't a category 3 hurricane, but we are seeing

how markets react to signs that the economy is normalizing after

turning hot in the first half of this year. The path to

normalization is never going to be smooth, and we're just not

used to what 'normalization' feels like. Markets can find

themselves overreacting and investors glom on to anything as an

excuse to take profits."

Tech stocks "led the way up and valuations got

stretched. The good news is that though Nvidia ( NVDA ) may be down 30%

or so from peak to trough, the S&P 500 is only down a fraction

of that amount. There's a rotation as well as a selloff."

YUNG-YU MA, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BMO WEALTH

MANAGEMENT (FROM NOTE)

"A 50 basis point Fed cut in September is clearly

justified as the labor market is now showing clear signs of

softening. The Fed is already falling behind the curve and rates

are overly restrictive - a 50 basis point cut in September would

only be catching-up to, rather than getting ahead of, the

curve."

MICHAEL ARONE, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, STATE STREET

GLOBAL ADVISORS, BOSTON

"There are three thing driving this selloff. August is

notoriously a difficult month for markets, and we went into it

with markets priced for perfection, particularly the Magnificent

7 stocks. Even beating expectations on both the top and bottom

lines wasn't enough this quarter, at these valuations."

"Ultimately, cooler heads will prevail. Corrections are

normal, and this is a garden variety correction. For it to wane

we'll need continued good earnings growth and some economic data

that stops the tide of recession fears. If you can get some of

that, this correction will begin to wane."

"It's important to keep an eye on credit spreads moving

forward. That will be an important barometer for the economy and

how people feel about business risk. They have widened

significantly, but they're not blowing out in the way that they

would if there was something underlying wrong."

MATT ROWE, HEAD OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT AND CROSS ASSET

STRATEGIES, NOMURA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK

"In summary, the jobs report is being treated as an

inflection point. Today, the bad news is being treated as 'bad

news'. Prior to today, bad economic data was treated as a

positive as it increased the likelihood of a rate cut and that

fueled equity beta appreciation."

DAVID WAGNER, HEAD OF EQUITIES & PORTFOLIO MANAGER,

APTUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, OHIO

"It all comes down to growth and what we've witnessed

over the past two days is a continued trend in lower

manufacturing PMIs and a weaker-than-expected jobs report that

could call into question that the lagging effects of monetary

policy are really starting to form and that the Fed may need to

become more reactionary than proactive. "

BRIAN MULBERRY, CLIENT PORTFOLIO MANAGER, ZACKS

INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, CHICAGO

"The only clear definable trend is the softening labor

market leading to a decline in manufacturing leading to weaker

than expected forecasts as Q2 earnings come out...With so much

return attributed to so few stocks, this kind of volatility was

very probable. We have also seen the broader market lower

forward guidance under the high cost of capital and believed it

was only a matter of time before it happened to the Mag 7 stocks

too. This week's earnings have shown that several of them are

not growing as fast as anticipated."

"There is a silver lining here. With yields now pulling

back below 4%, they are travelling down to a much more

competitive level with our long-term Dividend yield of 3.4%.

Remember there is still $5 Trillion in money market accounts

that could be looking for better treatment if the Fed does cut

rates."

MATT LLOYD, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT ADVISORS

ASSET MANAGEMENT

"What's happening today is the realization that there

are undercurrents, whether it's the job market or consumer

sentiment or the election volatility, that could be changing the

reason why the Fed is cutting from inflation to a weakening

economy."

"You're seeing decent earnings but the revenue numbers

are not robust. You've had high retail allocations into equities

and you're getting a shakeout that will churn here for a while."

MARK TRAVIS, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, INTREPID CAPITAL

"This market has been heavily concentrated and people

are realizing now that they did not have the valuation support

to keep buying at those levels."

"People are starting to reassess what their risks are

and whether they are properly positioned."

TOM PLUMB, CHIEF EXECUTIVE AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT PLUMB

FUNDS, MADISON, WI:

"This is an old fashioned correction going on and it's

obviously not something that anyone anticipates the moment it

starts, or even when it's going (to) end, but it's just not that

unusual as we passed the economic torch from the perception of

growth to the perception of needing government intervention with

lower interest rates to stabilize the economy.

"As we go through the fall and we start to see some impact

of the Federal Reserve taking actions (in terms of rate cuts),

we can see a recovery from the 16,600 levels right now to well

over 18,000 by the end of the year."

CLAUDIA SAHM, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT NEW CENTURY ADVISORS AND

FORMER FED ECONOMIST, ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA:

"The Fed, because it hasn't started to normalise yet, has a

lot of room to step in and take some pressure off the economy.

This is not a crisis moment. We still have a strong economy,

it's just slowing in a way that needs to get under control.

Given that (the Fed) has been slow to start their interest rate

reductions, doing some catch up in September could make a lot of

sense. They're going to want to be - appropriately so -

deliberate in their actions.

"We don't need a Federal Reserve that is in crisis mode.

We're not in a crisis, just... action needs to be taken... And I

think that's what will happen. It's exactly how they will

calibrate it will be a question. It's unfortunate that September

feels a long way away right now."

SOLITA MARCELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AMERICAS, UBS

GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT (IN A NOTE):

"US equity markets had been enjoying an unusually smooth

rally until the middle of July. The S&P 500 had gone more than

350 trading sessions without a drop of more than 2%-the best run

in 17 years. A return to higher levels of volatility was to be

expected, especially as the Fed approaches the start of a

cutting cycle and as investors await guidance from top tech

firms on whether their heavy investments in AI are paying off.

Meanwhile, political uncertainty remains elevated, especially

ahead of the US presidential election in November."

CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST AT ONLINE TRADING

PLATFORM IG (IN A NOTE):

"In the space of barely two days markets have gone from

looking forward to a Fed rate cut in a growing economy to

fretting about an impending recession. Today's huge payrolls

miss and the surge in the US unemployment rate has sparked a

fresh flight from risk assets already reeling from some poor

earnings reports and concerns about a wider conflict in the

Middle East. Investors are now hoping for a 50bps rate cut in

September, but worry that even this will be too little, too late

to stave off a US recession."

MICHAEL PURVES, CEO, TALLBACKEN CAPITAL ADVISORS, NY

"This is a good excuse for investors to sell after a huge

year to date rally. Does this weaker jobs number portend a

recession that's coming two quarters from now? There's a lot of

conflicting data."

"Investors should be prepared for some major volatility,

particularly in the big tech stocks. But it will probably be

short-lived. The earnings reports haven't been blockbuster, but

they haven't been bad either."

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
US STOCKS-Wall Street set to slide as tariffs spark recession fears
US STOCKS-Wall Street set to slide as tariffs spark recession fears
Mar 31, 2025
* Focus on tariffs, data and Fed * Trump to announce extensive tariffs on Wednesday * S&P, Nasdaq eye worst quarter since 2022 * Futures down: Dow 0.7%, S&P 500 1%, Nasdaq 1.4% (Updates with prices before opening bell) By Sruthi Shankar and Pranav Kashyap March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes were on course to open sharply lower on...
Sector Update: Financial Stocks Decline Pre-Bell Monday
Sector Update: Financial Stocks Decline Pre-Bell Monday
Mar 31, 2025
09:18 AM EDT, 03/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Financial stocks were declining pre-bell Monday, with The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) 0.9% lower. The Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares ( FAS ) was down 2.6% and its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares ( FAZ ) was 2.7% higher. Rocket (RKT) shares were more than 5% lower...
Wall Street opens sharply lower on tariff worries
Wall Street opens sharply lower on tariff worries
Mar 31, 2025
(Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes opened sharply lower on Monday as investors shied away from risky assets on mounting concerns that the Trump administration's upcoming announcement of extensive tariff plans could hurt the global economy. At 09:30 a.m. the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 290.65 points, or 0.68%, to 41,293.25, the S&P 500 lost 56.93 points, or 1.01%, to 5,524.77,...
Wall Street Set to Open Lower Monday as Investors Gird for More Tariffs, Await Key Manufacturing Data
Wall Street Set to Open Lower Monday as Investors Gird for More Tariffs, Await Key Manufacturing Data
Mar 31, 2025
09:02 AM EDT, 03/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US stocks look set to open lower in Monday's trading session as investors brace for President Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcements on Wednesday. Key manufacturing data is also set for release later in the morning. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were falling 0.63%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.92%, and Nasdaq futures...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved