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NEW YORK/SINGAPORE, May 29 (Reuters) -
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq held modest gains on Thursday,
coming off their highs for the day, while the Dow slipped, as
investors digested a U.S. federal court blocked President Donald
Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect. The
dollar, however, turned lower against its safe-haven peers such
as the yen and Swiss franc as investors braced for a battle over
these tariffs that will create more uncertainty and volatility.
The Trump administration has appealed the ruling.
The S&P 500 edged up 0.3% to 5,903.81 points, while
the U.S. dollar fell against both the yen and Swiss franc to
144.11 yen, and 0.8229 franc.
Here are quotes from market analysts:
UTO SHINOHARA, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, MESIROW
CURRENCY MANAGEMENT, CHICAGO
"The market's reaction to the court ruling served as a
microcosm of the broader uncertainty currently gripping
investors. News continues to exert a push-and-pull effect on
sentiment, but the deeper issue remains a persistent lack of
clarity surrounding trade policy."
"Initially, the ruling pushed the dollar higher,
consistent with recent patterns where lower tariffs have
coincided with dollar strength. This behavior runs counter to
the traditional assumption that tariffs and currency strength
move in tandem. Instead, the dollar's rally appeared to reflect
a more supportive growth outlook and a rotation back into US
assets following the post-Liberation Day selloff."
"However, gains in the dollar faded as markets began to
price in the prospect of a prolonged tariff dispute. The pending
appeal, either restoring confidence in institutional checks and
balances or further undermining it, alongside alternative legal
paths for imposing tariffs which typically involve longer
investigative timelines, all contribute to continued
uncertainty."
KATHLEEN BROOKS, RESEARCH DIRECTOR, XTB, UK (EMAILED
COMMENTS)
"Tariff uncertainty has not been reduced by this court
ruling, it is unlikely to boost consumer sentiment or business
confidence, and it may weigh on hiring. Tariffs are now a fact
of life, and they will continue to weigh on the global
macro-outlook for some time, which is why the post court ruling
stock market rally was always going to run out of stream."
"The bounce higher in the U.S. dollar has also come to an
end, and the dollar index is back below 100.00 and is lower on
the day. There has also been a turnaround in bond yields.
Initially, bond yields jumped as investors rushed to price in a
positive boost to global growth from the court ruling, and the
impact from reduced tariff levies on the US fiscal deficit.
However, as we move through the day, the focus is now on signs
of stress in the US economy, which is having a moderating impact
on bond yields."
BRAD BECHTEL, GLOBAL HEAD OF FX, JEFFERIES, NEW YORK
There was "definitely a little bit of a dollar rally on the
back of the court ruling overnight, but I think markets were
quick to realize that the ruling was sort of narrow, meaning it
was only focused on one aspect of the tariff plan here -
emergency authorization."
"There were still plenty of other avenues for Trump to kind
of do his thing on the tariff side, and that's why the dollar
gave up some of its gains."
BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT,
MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN
"It's always too early to turn off the news feed. The court
striking down Trump's tariffs is more than just a speedbump.
While President Trump can appeal the ruling or try to side-step
it, those options are limited and may end up giving the same
result. Stock markets like the ruling. Bond markets might not
like it quite as much. Although the tariffs couldn't technically
count in the scoring of the budget bill, bond investors were
still counting the revenue. The net effect is to make extending
and expanding the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act more costly."
JON WITHAAR, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, PICTET ASSET
MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE
"We are now at a point where many of the cautious investors
who went underweight post Liberation Day are being forced back
into markets, or stopped in, by the strong performance and the
risk of missing out.
"We are maintaining a cautious but positive approach based
around the idea that the eventual outcome for Asian based
companies will not be a bad as initially feared."
PRASHANT NEWNAHA, SENIOR ASIA-PACIFIC RATES STRATEGIST, TD
SECURITIES
"The knee-jerk reaction for equities to rally and bond
yields to back up on the tariff pause makes sense.
"However, with tariffs now in the appeal process and likely
heading to the Supreme Court, uncertainty is back. Expect to see
this lead to delays in investment and hiring. The pause also
puts tariff revenue at risk which could bring deficit issues
back on the radar. This should drive yields higher."
KEI OKAMURA, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, NEUBERGER BERMAN, TOKYO
"This ruling doesn't apply to Trump's sector-specific
tariffs like autos and semiconductors, so for Japan
specifically, it's a fairly neutral event.
"At the same time, we have this action by the U.S. judicial
system to keep the administration's powers in check. The
administration is increasingly coming at odds with the courts.
This is going to continue to come up as an issue, and creates a
lot of uncertainties.
"What companies need is direction, whether it's positive or
negative. This stop-and-go is not helpful for businesses that
need to make decisions that can take several years, even a
decade, to implement.
"For central banks, this development just reinforces their
wait-and-see stance."
KYLE RODDA, SENIOR FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYST, CAPITAL.COM,
MELBOURNE
"It's massive news. It's long been suggested that the
emergency powers Trump has used to implement tariffs were
unconstitutional and that the power to enact tariffs sits with
Congress."
"It sets up a battle that will likely end up the Supreme
Court now. It's a situation fraught with danger because the
administration may ignore the court's ruling, potentially
placing greater strain on U.S. institutions at a time of
increased stress."
"However, should the markets get their way, the courts could
delay and then deny these tariffs, removing one massive risk and
undoubtedly stoking risk appetite."
SHOKI OMORI, CHIEF DESK STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES,
TOKYO
"Initial reaction will be risk-on for risk assets such as
equities. It's likely that we will see people buying USD as a
funding currency expecting that global trade will re-ramp up."
"Given that trade talks have gone this far, (the United
States) won't let countries go back to the pre-Trump era."
However, "it is good news that courts started to fight back
against executive orders under rule of law."
FRANCES CHEUNG, HEAD OF FX AND RATES STRATEGY, OCBC,
SINGAPORE
"For bonds and FX, the timing is convenient for an extension
of the most recent trading momentum, where the dollar has
already shown signs of rebounding and long-end bond yields have
been facing upward pressure.
"That said, development on tariff and trade relations
remains fluid. Investors may be reluctant to load heavy
positions on either side of the trade."
GARY NG, SENIOR ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG
"The decision will fuel temporary risk-on sentiment in
equities and lower bond yields as the market dials back
inflation expectations driven by tariffs.
"However, this is not the end of the tariff story. There is
no clarity as the legal battle will continue and it does not
change the fact that Trump will find ways to reshape
global trade order."
YUNOSUKE IKEDA, HEAD OF MACRO RESEARCH, NOMURA, TOKYO
"At this point it's almost impossible to know if the tariffs
will be completely unwound by this. But in the hypothetical
situation that they are, it's natural to see dollar
appreciation. Basically Trump's tariffs will lead to stagflation
pressure on the U.S. economy, so reversing those tariffs would
be a positive for the dollar."
CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO,
SINGAPORE
"The ruling removes an immediate overhang, even if it is not
the final word on tariffs. Trump may still have scope to appeal
or impose narrower, sector-specific tariffs, so policy
uncertainty lingers.
"While the court ruling is a marginal positive for sentiment
and helps to clear out the most bearish growth outlook bets, it
does not remove uncertainty. Businesses still don't have
clarity, and the policy path remains fluid.
We could see the market unwinding some of the tariff-related
moves, such as the weaker USD and Gold, EUR, JPY and EM FX could
pull back. Short-end yields may rise as recession fears ease."
MATT SIMPSON, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, CITY INDEX, BRISBANE
"It seems inevitable the Supreme Court will be ordered to
weigh in on this one, which makes today's news more of a
speedbump than a full-drawn conclusion. But for now, investors
get a breather from the economic uncertainty they love to
loathe."
RAY ATTRILL, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, NAB, SYDNEY
"The assumption is that the tariffs that have been announced
and are in place will stay in place... Our assumption is President
Trump will appeal this trade court's decision and he has the
right to appeal... And then it will be up to the federal court
and what happens there? I have no idea. So this may be an
absolute storm in a teacup or potentially something more
significant.
"I think it's way premature basically to say that this has
the potential to reverse a lot of the moves that we've seen in
the last couple of months."