SINGAPORE, June 23 (Reuters) - Global shares slipped on
Monday while oil prices briefly hit five-month highs and the
dollar firmed as the world held its breath to see if Iran would
retaliate against U.S. attacks on its nuclear sites.
Market reaction to the weekend escalation of the conflict in
the Middle East has been subdued so far as investors remain in
wait-and-see mode.
Here are some comments from market analysts:
CAROL KONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF
AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY:
"The price action in response to the escalating Middle East
conflict has been muted so far as markets wait and see how Iran
responds. Judging by the small fall in FOMC rate cut pricing by
year-end, there are more worries about the positive inflationary
impact of the Middle East conflict than the negative economic
impact. The currency markets will be at the mercy of comments
and actions from the Iranian, Israeli and U.S. governments. The
risks are clearly skewed to further upside in the safe haven
currencies if the parties escalate the conflict."
CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE:
"Markets appear to be treating the U.S. strikes on Iran as a
contained event for now, rather than the start of a broader war.
The muted haven flows suggest investors are still assuming this
is a one-off escalation, not a disruption to global oil supply
or trade.
"Markets may be responding not to the escalation itself, but
to the perception that it could reduce longer-term uncertainty.
If Iran's nuclear capabilities are seen as meaningfully set
back, some investors may interpret that as a de-escalation in
disguise - a geopolitical risk removed, rather than added.
"That said, any sign of Iranian retaliation or threat to the
Strait of Hormuz could quickly shift sentiment and force markets
to reprice geopolitical risk more aggressively."
PRASHANT NEWNAHA, SENIOR ASIA-PACIFIC RATES STRATEGIST, TD
SECURITIES, SINGAPORE:
"The market reaction to weekend developments has been muted
to state the least. The price action implies this will be a
short-lived conflict, that escalation will ultimately lead to
de-escalation."
SHOKI OMORI, CHIEF DESK STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES,
TOKYO:
"On Monday, in light of weekend geopolitical risk events in
the Middle East, market participants adopted a wait-and-see
stance. Although the market initially anticipated a
bull-flattening of the JGB curve following last week's
unexpectedly large reduction in 20-year bond issuance, muted
movements in U.S. interest rates, combined with a shift in
sentiment toward dollar buying rather than selling, made it
challenging for investors to take decisive positions."
VASU MENON, MANAGING DIRECTOR, INVESTMENT STRATEGY, OCBC,
SINGAPORE:
"Much depends on what Iran will do next, but the shock and
awe of the US attack and the warning from Trump not to retaliate
or suffer significant consequences, may prevent Iran's leaders
from responding aggressively."
"Investors should prepare for more volatility in the coming
days, and possibly even weeks, given the ongoing Middle East
crisis and uncertainty about Trump's tariff policy. However,
these developments may not be the end of the global equity bull
market as long it doesn't result in sharply higher inflation and
cause a global recession.
"There is scope for safe havens like gold to continue rising
as global uncertainties are likely to remain a fixture, and
global central banks continue to diversify away from their US
dollar holdings towards gold. We see gold rising to
US$3,900/ounce over a 12-month horizon."