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QUOTES-Analysts react as markets brace for Iran response to US attack
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QUOTES-Analysts react as markets brace for Iran response to US attack
Jun 22, 2025 11:06 PM

SINGAPORE, June 23 (Reuters) - Global shares slipped on

Monday while oil prices briefly hit five-month highs and the

dollar firmed as the world held its breath to see if Iran would

retaliate against U.S. attacks on its nuclear sites.

Market reaction to the weekend escalation of the conflict in

the Middle East has been subdued so far as investors remain in

wait-and-see mode.

Here are some comments from market analysts:

CAROL KONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF

AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY:

"The price action in response to the escalating Middle East

conflict has been muted so far as markets wait and see how Iran

responds. Judging by the small fall in FOMC rate cut pricing by

year-end, there are more worries about the positive inflationary

impact of the Middle East conflict than the negative economic

impact. The currency markets will be at the mercy of comments

and actions from the Iranian, Israeli and U.S. governments. The

risks are clearly skewed to further upside in the safe haven

currencies if the parties escalate the conflict."

CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE:

"Markets appear to be treating the U.S. strikes on Iran as a

contained event for now, rather than the start of a broader war.

The muted haven flows suggest investors are still assuming this

is a one-off escalation, not a disruption to global oil supply

or trade.

"Markets may be responding not to the escalation itself, but

to the perception that it could reduce longer-term uncertainty.

If Iran's nuclear capabilities are seen as meaningfully set

back, some investors may interpret that as a de-escalation in

disguise - a geopolitical risk removed, rather than added.

"That said, any sign of Iranian retaliation or threat to the

Strait of Hormuz could quickly shift sentiment and force markets

to reprice geopolitical risk more aggressively."

PRASHANT NEWNAHA, SENIOR ASIA-PACIFIC RATES STRATEGIST, TD

SECURITIES, SINGAPORE:

"The market reaction to weekend developments has been muted

to state the least. The price action implies this will be a

short-lived conflict, that escalation will ultimately lead to

de-escalation."

SHOKI OMORI, CHIEF DESK STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES,

TOKYO:

"On Monday, in light of weekend geopolitical risk events in

the Middle East, market participants adopted a wait-and-see

stance. Although the market initially anticipated a

bull-flattening of the JGB curve following last week's

unexpectedly large reduction in 20-year bond issuance, muted

movements in U.S. interest rates, combined with a shift in

sentiment toward dollar buying rather than selling, made it

challenging for investors to take decisive positions."

VASU MENON, MANAGING DIRECTOR, INVESTMENT STRATEGY, OCBC,

SINGAPORE:

"Much depends on what Iran will do next, but the shock and

awe of the US attack and the warning from Trump not to retaliate

or suffer significant consequences, may prevent Iran's leaders

from responding aggressively."

"Investors should prepare for more volatility in the coming

days, and possibly even weeks, given the ongoing Middle East

crisis and uncertainty about Trump's tariff policy. However,

these developments may not be the end of the global equity bull

market as long it doesn't result in sharply higher inflation and

cause a global recession.

"There is scope for safe havens like gold to continue rising

as global uncertainties are likely to remain a fixture, and

global central banks continue to diversify away from their US

dollar holdings towards gold. We see gold rising to

US$3,900/ounce over a 12-month horizon."

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