The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its February policy announced on Thursday, maintained status quo on key rates in a widely expected move. In its sixth and final policy for the current fiscal, the central bank kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.15 percent due to higher inflation. It revised the inflation forecast but kept GDP growth projection for FY20 unchanged.
NSE
However, the highlight was the non-policy announcements which included certain relief measures for the real estate and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) sector.
"Budget Part II was delivered by RBI in the form of lowering costs to MSMEs and bringing some life into realty wherein loans to the commercial sector will be considered as standard... Although interest rates have maintained a status quo, it has smartly lubricated the slower moving parts of the economy," Jimeet Modi, founder and CEO at Samco Securities, said.
READ MORE: 10 key takeaways from RBI's sixth bi-monthly policy
Most brokerages as well lauded this move but do not see any rate cut in the immediate future due to high inflation.
Morgan Stanley, in a report post policy announcement, said that it sees the scope of some easing (15-25 bps) after inflation declines in H2FY21 and expects inflation to remain above the 7 percent mark over the next 2-3 months.
Deutsche Bank also noted that the RBI is not done with easing but will wait for an appropriate time to ease repo rate. It sees room for 1 last 25 bps rate cut in August, by which CPI inflation is expected to be under control.
JPMorgan also expects more easing but inflation dynamics will determine the time, it said. It sees MPC commentary as guidance for more rate cuts on the anvil.
Phillip Capital, too, forecasts RBI holding rates till H1FY21. "RBI took measures to incentivise banks for MSME, real estate, and auto lending – directionally positive. Additionally, it brought meaningful changes to the liquidity-management framework for banks; along with Operation Twist, RBI has consistently taken measures to lower interest rates across the curve – from daily repo to 1/3 year bonds to 10-year bonds. We view these changes as a clear signal to the market that interest rates will be brought down to ensure transmission across the spectrum. Lower interest rates will bode well for the economy in the long-run," the brokerage firm explained.