04:23 PM EDT, 03/14/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's main stock market, the resources heavy Toronto Stock Exchange, lost 140 points on Thursday after recording a hat trick of wins to start a week that has seen it get to within 120 points of all time highs.

Tuesday's losses reflected mixed commodity prices, some profit taking and likely some lingering anxiety among investors awaiting more clarity around when the rate cut cycle will start across North America. Most sectors were lower, led by Telecom down near 1.5% and Health Care down near 1.3%. But there were gains for the Battery Metals Index, up 7%, and Energy, up near 0.9%.

Of commodities today, gold prices settled lower as the dollar and bond yields climbed after yet another US inflation measure ran hotter than expected last month. Gold for April delivery closed down $13.30 to settle at US$2,167.50 per ounce.

But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at a four-month high after the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2024 oil-demand forecast, cut its supply outlook and said it expects global inventories to tighten for the entire year due to continuing production cuts from OPEC+. WTI crude oil closed up $1.54 to settle at US$81.26 per barrel, the highest since Nov.6, while May Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen up $1.47 to US$85.50.

It was another day with focus on the macro. With every economic release, and many economic notes, released in North America being looked at keenly by stock pickers for clues on the timing and size of expected rate cuts, today's Forex report for March 2024 from National Bank of Canada may have provided some food for thought, at least for Canadians.

According to National Bank, the loonie's recent appreciation has been "tepid" considering the overall weakness of the US dollar. In essence, it noted, the CAD has been the weakest of the strong over the past month, with the bank saying this weak performance versus other commodity currencies can be attributed to "underwhelming" economic data. It added: "The restrictive monetary policy in Canada can no longer be justified". As it continues to believe that rate cuts will be more aggressive on this side of the border, National Bank still sees USD-CAD moving above 1.40 in the second half of 2024.

Meanwhile, in terms of clues as to likely policy strategy in the U.S., Morgan Stanley Research published an FOMC Preview that sees the Fed keep on hold at 5.375% next week. Morgan Stanley expects little change to the FOMC statement and the projections, with the median dot remaining at three cuts. On key risk, Morgan Stanley said it would take just two participants to change from three cuts to two for the median dot to move to a total of two cuts in 2024, underscoring that the risk tilts toward fewer rather than greater. Chair Powell is unlikely in the 'two camp' and Morgan Stanley thinks he will push to keep the median at three.

Earlier today TD Economics after looking at U.S. Retail Sales for February 2024 noted that with two months of data in for the quarter, consumer spending is currently tracking 2.7% q/q (annualized) for Q1. TD said the pick-up in retail spending is unlikely to be good news for policymakers at the Fed. The bank added: "The recent flip in core goods prices from deflation to price growth makes continued buoyant retail sales even more of a challenge to the Fed's inflation targeting objective. The current near-term headwinds, from both inflation and spending, are likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines for a bit longer as they continue to monitor inflation's progress to target."