The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is expected to post muted June quarter earnings for a couple of reasons. Domestic brokerage house Prabhudas Lilladher expects RIL's O2C segment to report muted result due to ;lower refining, partly compensated by higher petchem margins. RIL is scheduled to release its earnings for the first quarter on Friday.

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Refining throughput expected to be flat year-on-year (YoY) at 17.5 million tones, up 2 percent QoQ. Petchem profitability, meanwhile, is expected to improve quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), due to demand recovery post China reopening.

Additionally, the Singapore gross refining margins have declined to levels of $4 per barrel, down 51 percent QoQ due to decline in cracks. Gasoline cracks declined 17 percent QoQ. On the other hand, LPG, Naphtha and Middle distillate cracks also declined during the quarter under review.

BofA Securities has estimated a 10 percent YoY drop in the bottomline to Rs 16,160 crore, and a 16 percent fall from the March quarter, primarily due to subdued performance of the O2C segment.

“We estimate O2C EBIT to be down 6 percent QoQ mainly on the back of weaker GRMs in the refinery business, offsetting benefits from cheaper Russian crude oil,” the brokerage said.

The consolidated revenue will likely decline 7 percent YoY and 4 percent on a sequential basis to Rs 2.08 lakh crore.

Meanwhile, Nuvama anticipates 1 percent YoY dip in RIL EBITDA (-3 percent QoQ), largely led by weak O2C, partially offset by strong oil and gas, retail and telecom.

The brokerage expects RIL oil and gas operations EBITDA to rise 41 percent YoY (flat QoQ) on higher deepwater gas prices (up 2 times YoY, flat QoQ).

O2C EBITDA will likely decline 24 percent YoY and 7 percent QoQ on a subdued refining and petchem segment, it said.

Apart from announcements pertaining to Jio Financial Services, Dalal Street investors will keenly watch the annual general meeting, scheduled in August next month.

Historically, RIL has made key announcements on value unlocking catalysts and future growth plans in the AGM, and therefore, investors keenly look forward to it.

BofA said that the stock of RIL has historically outperformed in the run-up to the AGM on most instances. The brokerage has maintained a 'Buy' rating on the counter, as it sees multiple levers across businesses over the next 12-18 months.