(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, July 16 (Reuters) - Doubts around Wall
Street's AI-fueled boom may be swirling, but foreign investors'
insatiable appetite for U.S. stocks suggests there's life in the
"U.S. exceptionalism" narrative yet.
Official U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) figures - the
gold standard for measuring U.S. securities flows - this week
showed historic demand for U.S. equities in May from the foreign
private sector.
Foreign private sector investors' net purchases of U.S.
stocks in May totaled $120.8 billion, up from $85.6 billion the
month before, according to the latest TIC report. That was the
second-highest inflow on record after November 2024.
"It's still really, really hard to see evidence that the
rest of the world is shunning U.S. assets," said Kit Juckes,
head of FX strategy at Societe Generale in London.
To be sure, a heavy rotation within the U.S. tech and AI
universe is underway. Investors are punishing the hyperscalers
that are spending vast sums on AI infrastructure and capex,
while rewarding the semiconductor companies receiving much of
that flow. The S&P 500 software and services index is
down 17% year to date, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor
Index is up a whopping 75%.
Zoom out though, and it's a familiar picture: global investors'
appetite for U.S. equities, especially tech, remains
undiminished.
May was a strong month for Wall Street, with the S&P 500
up 5% and the S&P 500 tech sector rising an impressive
16%, so perhaps solid participation from abroad isn't all that
surprising.
But the strength of that buying is, especially when compared
with the foreign selling in other countries at the vanguard of
the global AI revolution, notably South Korea and Taiwan.
Non-residents are dumping these countries' stocks while
continuing to pour huge amounts into the U.S.
Investors' "fear of missing out," or FOMO, appears to be alive
and well, as far as U.S. equities are concerned.
FLIGHT RISK
Comparing the TIC data with foreign flows for South Korea
and Taiwan - two other AI heavyweights - is revealing.
Of course, like-for-like comparisons between countries are
difficult because of methodology, collection and calculation
differences. But one can get a good sense of foreign demand for
emerging market assets using the Institute of International
Finance's (IIF) best-in-class emerging market portfolio flows
data.
IIF figures show non-resident investors pulled $27.9 billion
out of South Korean stocks in May. That net outflow increased in
June to $30.5 billion, the biggest outflow in more than 25
years.
Meanwhile, non-residents pulled a net $18.3 billion out of
Taiwanese stocks in June, the second-biggest monthly outflow on
record. The largest was a $28.7 billion outflow in March.
So far this year, foreigners' net sales of South Korean
stocks have reached nearly $100 billion, while non-residents
have sold a net $20 billion of Taiwanese stocks, IIF figures
show.
South Korean and Taiwanese equity indices are seen as
barometers for market sentiment on the global AI story because
they are heavily concentrated in tech and a handful of megacap
companies, namely SK Hynix ( SKHY ), Samsung and
TSMC.
Both markets have soared this year, but have also recorded
massive selloffs, with realized volatility reaching historic
levels. Does that mean investors are growing skittish about the
AI story itself? Perhaps, but this volatility may, in part,
reflect the growing presence of highly leveraged domestic retail
investors in these markets.
Regardless, such ructions are unlikely to help attract
foreign capital back in, unless we see a significant,
sustainable correction.
That suggests investors wanting to get in on the AI frenzy
may still flock to Wall Street.
There is one significant caveat to all this. The TIC data
has a heavy lag, and the U.S. tech sector - including both
hyperscalers and chip companies - did experience some tremors in
June, so we will still need to wait and see if that affected
foreign demand.
For now, however, the latest data shows two things: the world
still doesn't want to miss out on the AI rally; and Wall Street,
not Asian markets, is the more attractive and stable destination
for global investors.
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters)
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(By Jamie McGeever
Editing by Marguerita Choy)