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Scared of market volatility? Here are top contrarian 'buy' and 'sell' ideas by Motilal Oswal
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Scared of market volatility? Here are top contrarian 'buy' and 'sell' ideas by Motilal Oswal
Jul 22, 2019 1:56 AM

After a blockbuster start to 2019, Indian markets swallowed the bitter pill of profit booking, weak global cues, sluggish earnings and selling by foreign investors, leading to a 3 percent drop in indices in the last 1 month.

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Following the recent correction, valuations of Indian market have come down to a reasonable level, which offers investors a great opportunity for investors to accumulate stocks.

Investors should now look at companies which have a fundamentally strong business model and can deliver good profit, experts say.

Brokerage Motilal Oswal has released a list of contrarian bets in the current market scenario. Contrarian investing is a time-tested investment tool, which involves buying/selling stocks that goes against the prevailing sentiment of the crowd or the market.

Top contrarian 'buy' ideas include Bank of Baroda, Siemens, NTPC, NMDC, and ITC, while, contrarian 'sell' bets include Asian Paints, Havells India, Britannia, Shree Cement, and Cipla.Bank of Baroda, which has given 8 percent returns in last 1 year, has 80 percent brokerages having a buy or a hold rating. The stock corrected 20 percent from its 52-week high of Rs 157.45 hit on August 9, 2018.

"We expect loan book to increase to Rs 6.6 lakh crore, aided by the merger with Vijaya and Dena, and deposit base to increase to Rs 9.3 lakh crore. We expect drill-down in the international book to continue and the focus to remain on granular retail loans. We expect margins to remain at 2.8 percent on account of re-pricing of loans and an improvement in international margins," the brokerage said in its earnings preview report.

Siemens India shares have fallen 10 percent from its 52-week high of Rs 1,366.85 hit on July 5, 2019, and 74 percent brokerages have either a buy or hold rating on the stock.

NTPC, which has given just 1 percent return in the last 12 months, has a positive rating from all the brokerages. For Q1, the brokerage expects adjusted PAT (before the impact of fixed charge under-recoveries) to increase 8 percent YoY to Rs 3,190 crore on higher other income, given accrual accounting of late payment surcharge. Reported PAT is expected to increase 21 percent YoY, led by lower fixed-cost under-recoveries given the improved availability.

NMDC and ITC are the other two contrarian 'buys'. While NMDC has 90 percent positive ratings, ITC has 93 percent bullish calls.

For ITC Q1, the brokerage expects net sales to grow 9.4 percent YoY to Rs 11700 crore with cigarette volume growth of 6 percent. They expect ‘other-FMCG’ revenue to grow at 9 percent YoY in 1QFY20.

Shree Cement is the top contrarian 'sell' call by MOSL with 53 percent brokerages holding a negative view on the stock. For Q1, the brokerage expects cement volumes to decline 14 percent YoY to 6 MT, led by demand weakness. Realizations are expected to increase 6.4 percent QoQ to Rs 4,495 per ton.

Britannia and Cipla also have 49 percent and 43 percent bearish ratings despite the stocks rising 6 and 14 percent from their respective 52-week lows. They have given negative returns of 13 percent and 12 percent, respectively in the last 12 months.

MOSL expects Britannia’s sales to grow 10 percent YoY to Rs 2800 crore, with base business volumes growing 6 percent on a high base of 11 percent volume growth.

For Cipla, they expect revenue to grow 15.3 percent YoY to Rs 45 crore in 1QFY20. Growth is expected to be driven by the export formulations business, which MOSL anticipates will grow 25.3 percent YoY to Rs 2,740 crore, led by a 77.7 percent increase in the North America business. Domestic business is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 3 percent YoY.

Disclaimer: CNBCTV18.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions

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