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Shifting election bets boost solar stocks, weigh on crypto after fiery debate
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Shifting election bets boost solar stocks, weigh on crypto after fiery debate
Sep 11, 2024 11:06 AM

NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) -

Investors scrambled to shift their positioning on Wednesday

following a closely-watched debate between Republican Donald

Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, as betting

markets swung in Harris' favor after the event.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group ( DJT ), the company

that owns the Truth Social, slumped around 14% in premarket

trading, while solar stocks

rallied

.

The dollar edged lower against Asian currencies

following the debate but rebounded after U.S. consumer price

data. U.S. cryptocurrency shares

fell

in premarket trading, while bitcoin was off around 1.5%.

In a

combative debate

late Tuesday, Trump and Harris clashed over everything from

the economy to immigration and Trump's legal woes, as each

sought a campaign-altering moment in what has been a

closely-fought race.

Their exchanges left investors with few new details on

issues that could sway markets, including tariffs, taxes and

regulation. But online prediction markets showed bets on a

stronger likelihood of a Harris win in November: Harris' odds in

PredictIt's 2024 presidential general election market improved

to 55 cents from 53 cents before the debate, while Trump's odds

slipped to 47 cents from 52 cents.

There is a "general view that Harris won the debate,"

said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets

in Singapore. "It's obviously not a slam dunk for Harris, but

the chances of a Trump victory have slipped a bit."

The U.S. dollar was recently down 0.2% against a basket

of currencies including the euro and Japanese yen. Stock futures

were down around 0.3%, with investors awaiting consumer price

data.

U.S.-listed shares of solar companies, seen as

benefiting from a Harris win, rose between 2.2% and 7.2% in

premarket trading.

At the same time, investors hammered the shares of Trump

Media & Technology Group ( DJT ), which have been popular among

retail traders and sensitive to the former president's chances

of a win in the 2024 election.

While the presidential race is very much on investors'

minds, political concerns have lately coalesced with more

immediate market catalysts

, including worries over a potentially softening U.S.

economy and uncertainty over how deeply the Fed will need to cut

interest rates, investors said. The S&P 500 notched its worst

weekly percentage loss since March 2023 last week after a

second-straight underwhelming jobs report, though the index is

still up nearly 15% this year.

Still, some investors believe even a small shift in

perceptions of the candidates could prove significant in a

contest that could come down to tens of thousands of votes in a

handful of states. The two candidates are effectively tied in

the seven battleground states likely to decide the election,

according to polling averages compiled by the New York Times.

"The US Presidential debate achieved its goal by

providing a decisive edge to one of the candidates in what has

been an exceptionally close race," said Charu Chanana, Head of

FX Strategy and Global Market Strategist at Saxo. "Crypto and

energy stocks might face headwinds as market sentiment adjusts

to the shifting political dynamics."

Trump has positioned himself as a pro-cryptocurrency

candidate.

TAXES AND TARIFFS

Trump has promised lower corporate taxes and a tougher

stance on trade and tariffs. He has also said a strong dollar

hurts the U.S., though some analysts believe his policies could

spur inflation and eventually buoy the currency.

Harris last month outlined plans to raise the corporate tax

rate to 28% from 21%, a proposal that some on Wall Street

believe could hurt corporate profits.

On Tuesday night, Harris attacked Trump's intention to

impose high tariffs on foreign goods - a proposal she has

likened to a sales tax on the middle class - while touting her

plan to offer tax benefits to families and small businesses.

Trump defended his tariffs proposal and said they would not

lead to higher prices for Americans.

The Chinese yuan, which had come under pressure in the

U.S.-China trade war during Trump's term, edged up against the

dollar in early Wednesday trading.

Trump also criticized Harris for the persistent inflation

during the Biden administration's term. Inflation, he said, "has

been a disaster for people, for the middle class, for every

class."

However, economic policies could be up in the air for a

while longer.

"There wasn't much substantive discussion of policy," Carson

Group's Varghese said. "Neither candidate advocated for vastly

different economic policies than currently in place. Ultimately,

a lot of economic policies that we see implemented next year

will depend on the makeup of the Senate and the House."

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