NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) -
Investors scrambled to shift their positioning on Wednesday
following a closely-watched debate between Republican Donald
Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, as betting
markets swung in Harris' favor after the event.
Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group ( DJT ), the company
that owns the Truth Social, slumped around 14% in premarket
trading, while solar stocks
rallied
.
The dollar edged lower against Asian currencies
following the debate but rebounded after U.S. consumer price
data. U.S. cryptocurrency shares
fell
in premarket trading, while bitcoin was off around 1.5%.
In a
combative debate
late Tuesday, Trump and Harris clashed over everything from
the economy to immigration and Trump's legal woes, as each
sought a campaign-altering moment in what has been a
closely-fought race.
Their exchanges left investors with few new details on
issues that could sway markets, including tariffs, taxes and
regulation. But online prediction markets showed bets on a
stronger likelihood of a Harris win in November: Harris' odds in
PredictIt's 2024 presidential general election market improved
to 55 cents from 53 cents before the debate, while Trump's odds
slipped to 47 cents from 52 cents.
There is a "general view that Harris won the debate,"
said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets
in Singapore. "It's obviously not a slam dunk for Harris, but
the chances of a Trump victory have slipped a bit."
The U.S. dollar was recently down 0.2% against a basket
of currencies including the euro and Japanese yen. Stock futures
were down around 0.3%, with investors awaiting consumer price
data.
U.S.-listed shares of solar companies, seen as
benefiting from a Harris win, rose between 2.2% and 7.2% in
premarket trading.
At the same time, investors hammered the shares of Trump
Media & Technology Group ( DJT ), which have been popular among
retail traders and sensitive to the former president's chances
of a win in the 2024 election.
While the presidential race is very much on investors'
minds, political concerns have lately coalesced with more
immediate market catalysts
, including worries over a potentially softening U.S.
economy and uncertainty over how deeply the Fed will need to cut
interest rates, investors said. The S&P 500 notched its worst
weekly percentage loss since March 2023 last week after a
second-straight underwhelming jobs report, though the index is
still up nearly 15% this year.
Still, some investors believe even a small shift in
perceptions of the candidates could prove significant in a
contest that could come down to tens of thousands of votes in a
handful of states. The two candidates are effectively tied in
the seven battleground states likely to decide the election,
according to polling averages compiled by the New York Times.
"The US Presidential debate achieved its goal by
providing a decisive edge to one of the candidates in what has
been an exceptionally close race," said Charu Chanana, Head of
FX Strategy and Global Market Strategist at Saxo. "Crypto and
energy stocks might face headwinds as market sentiment adjusts
to the shifting political dynamics."
Trump has positioned himself as a pro-cryptocurrency
candidate.
TAXES AND TARIFFS
Trump has promised lower corporate taxes and a tougher
stance on trade and tariffs. He has also said a strong dollar
hurts the U.S., though some analysts believe his policies could
spur inflation and eventually buoy the currency.
Harris last month outlined plans to raise the corporate tax
rate to 28% from 21%, a proposal that some on Wall Street
believe could hurt corporate profits.
On Tuesday night, Harris attacked Trump's intention to
impose high tariffs on foreign goods - a proposal she has
likened to a sales tax on the middle class - while touting her
plan to offer tax benefits to families and small businesses.
Trump defended his tariffs proposal and said they would not
lead to higher prices for Americans.
The Chinese yuan, which had come under pressure in the
U.S.-China trade war during Trump's term, edged up against the
dollar in early Wednesday trading.
Trump also criticized Harris for the persistent inflation
during the Biden administration's term. Inflation, he said, "has
been a disaster for people, for the middle class, for every
class."
However, economic policies could be up in the air for a
while longer.
"There wasn't much substantive discussion of policy," Carson
Group's Varghese said. "Neither candidate advocated for vastly
different economic policies than currently in place. Ultimately,
a lot of economic policies that we see implemented next year
will depend on the makeup of the Senate and the House."