financetom
Market
financetom
/
Market
/
Summer Doldrums Tend To Hit Stock Market In August, Low To Negative Returns Historically
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Summer Doldrums Tend To Hit Stock Market In August, Low To Negative Returns Historically
Jul 30, 2024 9:33 AM

August is not historically a very good month for stocks. Across several major indices, average returns for the month are low to negative, and it is essentially a coin flip as to whether an index will finish higher or lower. In other words, there is no strong directional bias in August. 

Some investors may think all months are a coin flip as to whether a stock index will go higher or not, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Some months are much stronger than others. 

For example, the S&P 500 has moved higher in 16 out of the last 20 Aprils and Novembers (80%), with average gains of 2% and 2.5%, respectively. The S&P 500 has moved higher in July 75% of the time over the last 20 years, with an average gain of 2.4%. Those are the best months of the year for stocks, with upside biases.

For comparison, here's how August has historically performed in various indices.

The S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) .

12 out of the last 20 years it has moved up in the month (60%), with an average gain of 0.1%.

The Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust

11 out of the last 20 years it has moved up in the month (55%), with an average gain of 0.7%.

The NYSE Composite Index is a broad measure of stock performance, including companies of varying sizes and industries.

10 of the last 20 years it has moved higher in August (50%). The average return for the month is -0.6%.

So are there any stock market bright spots in August?

Possibly, but when looking at seasonal patterns in Sector ETFs, they told the same story as the stock indices. None of the sector ETFs had strong historical performance in August.

Most stocks move with the direction of the indices, but there are occasionally ones that perform strongly while the stock indices are weak or flat. These can be found by looking for price momentum in a stock scanner. 

The study of how stock indices have historically performed at a certain time of year is called seasonality. It doesn't necessarily predict what will happen this year, it only tells us what has happened in the past. It should not be relied on exclusively for trading or investing decisions. Use it, or don't use it, in conjunction with a personalized trading/investing plan.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
GRAPHIC-What matters most to world markets in a tight US election race
GRAPHIC-What matters most to world markets in a tight US election race
Oct 11, 2024
LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. presidential election, the most consequential vote for financial markets in an election-packed year, is weeks away. With Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump locked in a close race to win the Nov. 5 election, we look at what matters most for world markets. EUROPE IN THE BALANCE For European equity...
Big Banks Kick Off Earnings Season as US Equity Futures Turn Mostly Lower Pre-Bell
Big Banks Kick Off Earnings Season as US Equity Futures Turn Mostly Lower Pre-Bell
Oct 11, 2024
07:47 AM EDT, 10/11/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US equity futures were mostly lower Friday as major banks kicked off the latest earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures flatlined, S&P 500 futures declined 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.3%. Oil prices were lower, with front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent crude down 0.8% at $78.73 per barrel and...
What matters most to world markets in a tight US election race
What matters most to world markets in a tight US election race
Oct 11, 2024
LONDON (Reuters) - The U.S. presidential election, the most consequential vote for financial markets in an election-packed year, is weeks away. With Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump locked in a close race to win the Nov. 5 election, we look at what matters most for world markets. EUROPE IN THE BALANCE For European equity markets, a...
US STOCKS-Futures mixed as banks kick off Q3 earnings season; Tesla falls
US STOCKS-Futures mixed as banks kick off Q3 earnings season; Tesla falls
Oct 11, 2024
(For a Reuters live blog on U.S., UK and European stock markets, click or type LIVE/ in a news window.) * JPMorgan ( JPM ), Wells Fargo ( WFC ) up after Q3 results * Tesla down after unveiling robotaxi * PPI data due at 8:30 a.m. ET * Futures: Dow flat, S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq down 0.23% (Updated at...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved